Has carbon emissions trading system promoted non-fossil energy development in China?
Has carbon emissions trading system promoted non-fossil energy development in China?
复制标题
碳排放交易体系是否促进了中国非化石能源发展？
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117613
复制
发表时间：
2021-08-19
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Zhang, Yue-Jun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Jing-Yue;Zhang, Yue-Jun
碳排放交易机制（ETS）可以将化石能源消费的环境成本内部化，鼓励企业消费非化石能源，这对于中华人民共和国经济有效地实现《巴黎协定》的贡献目标至关重要。然而，中国的碳排放交易体系是否能促进非化石能源的发展仍有待回答。本文采用差异中差异模型对碳排放交易体系对中国非化石能源发展的影响进行了评估。利用2004年1月至2019年12月的省级月度面板数据，我们发现：（1）ETS显著促进了中国非化石能源的发展，非化石能源发电量占总发电量的月平均份额提高了2.326个百分点，这一点已经被一系列稳健性检验所验证。(2)ETS对非化石能源发展的影响因能源类型、试点地区和试点能源类型而异。ETS显著提高了水电、光伏发电份额，显著促进了广东非化石能源发展;同时ETS显著提高了广东水电、核电份额，湖北风电、光伏发电份额。(3)碳价越高，ETS对非化石能源发展的促进作用越大。
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) can internalize the environmental costs of fossil energy consumption and encourage enterprises to consume non-fossil energy, which is crucial for People's Republic of China (PRC) to achieve the contribution target of the Paris Agreement cost-effectively. However, whether the ETS in PRC can promote non-fossil energy development remains to be answered. This paper uses a difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effect of the ETS on non-fossil energy development in PRC. Using provincial monthly panel data from January 2004 to December 2019, we find that (1) the ETS has significantly promoted non-fossil energy development in PRC, increasing the monthly average share of non-fossil energy power generation in total power generation by 2.326 percentage points, which has been verified by a series of robustness tests. (2) The effect of the ETS on non-fossil energy development is heterogeneous by energy type, pilot region, and pilot-energy type. The ETS has significantly increased the share of hydropower and photovoltaic power generation, and has significantly promoted non-fossil energy development in Guangdong; meanwhile, the ETS has signifi-cantly increased the share of hydropower and nuclear power in Guangdong, and the share of wind power and photovoltaic power in Hubei. (3) The higher the carbon price, the greater the role of the ETS in promoting non fossil energy development.