Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin
Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin
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DOI：
10.3354/cr01325
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发表时间：
2015-09
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
R. Ferrise;P. Toscano;M. Pasqui;M. Moriondo;J. Primicerio;M. Semenov;M. Bindi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Ferrise;P. Toscano;M. Pasqui;M. Moriondo;J. Primicerio;M. Semenov;M. Bindi
即将到来的生长季节天气条件的不确定性影响到农民根据以往气候的经验作出关于减少农业风险的决定。对谷物产量的早期季节内预测可以为农民提供一个很好的机会，以改善他们的管理决策，并有可能提高产量和降低潜在风险。本研究评估了地中海盆地10个地点的硬粒小麦产量季节内预测的3种方法。为了评估季节内预测的价值，使用了模型EQUALIUSQUALITY 2来计算9年期的小麦产量。最初，该模型使用观测到的每日天气运行，以获得参考产量。然后，从收获前6个月开始，通过向模型提供从生长季节开始到特定日期的观测天气，然后使用历史、模拟或经验3种方法构建的合成天气，直到生长季节结束，以每月时间步长计算产量预测。结果表明，在地中海盆地，用历史和经验方法预报硬粒小麦产量可提前5 ~ 6个月，用类比方法预报可提前3个月，其标准化均方根误差小于20%。总体而言，历史方法的表现优于其他方法。尽管如此，类比和经验方法对低产量和高产量年份提供了更好的估计，从而表明对偏离平均条件的年份提供更准确预测的潜力很大。
Uncertainty in weather conditions for the forthcoming growing season influences farmers' decisions, based on their experience of the past climate, regarding the reduction of agri- cultural risk. Early within-season predictions of grain yield can represent a great opportunity for farmers to improve their management decisions and potentially increase yield and reduce poten- tial risk. This study assessed 3 methods of within-season predictions of durum wheat yield at 10 sites across the Mediterranean Basin. To assess the value of within-season predictions, the model SiriusQuality2 was used to calculate wheat yields over a 9 yr period. Initially, the model was run with observed daily weather to obtain the reference yields. Then, yield predictions were calcu- lated at a monthly time step, starting from 6 mo before harvest, by feeding the model with observed weather from the beginning of the growing season until a specific date and then with synthetic weather constructed using the 3 methods, historical, analogue or empirical, until the end of the growing season. The results showed that it is possible to predict durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin with an accuracy of normalized root means squared error of <20%, from 5 to 6 mo earlier for the historical and empirical methods and 3 mo earlier for the analogue method. Overall, the historical method performed better than the others. Nonetheless, the analogue and empirical methods provided better estimations for low-yielding and high-yielding years, thus indi- cating great potential to provide more accurate predictions for years that deviate from average conditions.