Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment
Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Kunreuther, H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aerts, J. C. J. H.;Botzen, W. J.;Kunreuther, H.
个人、企业和政府实体在灾难发生之前、期间和之后的行为可能会极大地影响和恢复时间。然而，现有的风险评估方法很少包括这一关键因素。在这个角度来看，我们为什么这是一个问题，并表明，虽然最初的努力不可避免地代表人类行为在有限的条件下，创新的洪水风险评估，将社会行为和行为适应动态到这样的量化可能会导致更准确的风险特征和改善评估的有效性风险管理策略和投资。这种多学科方法可以为制定洪水风险管理政策提供信息。
The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.