A Population Model to Simulate Northern Bobwhite Population Dynamics in Southern Texas
A Population Model to Simulate Northern Bobwhite Population Dynamics in Southern Texas
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DOI：
10.1002/jwmg.52
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发表时间：
2011-04
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通讯作者：
Stephen J. Demaso;W. Grant;F. Hernández;L. Brennan;N. Silvy;X. Wu;F. Bryant
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作者：
Stephen J. Demaso;W. Grant;F. Hernández;L. Brennan;N. Silvy;X. Wu;F. Bryant
模型是帮助管理者和研究者了解物种种群动态以及不同栖息地或种群管理方案如何影响该物种的重要工具。我们使用无线电遥测数据从北方bobwhites（Colinus virginianus）在得克萨斯州南部，从2000年至2005年开发一个随机模拟模型bobwhites人口。我们的模型是基于差分方程，随机变量从正常和威布尔分布。我们模拟了100年的bobwhite种群，并通过将结果与4个种群参数（春季和秋季密度，秋季种群有限增长率[]和冬季juv：ad年龄比）的独立估计值进行比较来评估我们的模型。使用≤40只鸟（密度= ≤0.05只鸟/公顷）的准灭绝标准，春季种群持续100年的概率为88.3%（120次模拟中的106次），秋季种群为96.7%（120次模拟中的116次）。使用限制性较小的准灭绝标准（≤ 14只鸟），春季种群的持续概率为93.3%（120次模拟中的112次），秋季种群的持续概率为98.3%（120次模拟中的118次）。模拟群体参数与4个群体参数中的4个的独立估计值相似。冬季年龄比之间存在差异，我们的模型（= 4.98 juv：ad，n = 120，SE = 0.32）和经验年龄比收获bobwhites在我们的研究领域（= 2.85 juv：ad，n = 25，SE = 0.24）。然而，当我们校正收获年龄比的偏差在少年收获（= 3.85 Juv：AD，n = 25，SE = 0.32）模拟和经验估计是相似的。我们的模型似乎是一个可靠的预测在得克萨斯州南部的bobwhite人口。我们的模拟结果表明，在大约10年的时间里，猎鸟者和管理者可以期待极好的猎鸟（秋季种群≥2.2只/公顷）。
ABSTRACT Models are important tools that can help managers and researchers understand the population dynamics of a species and how different habitat or population management scenarios impact that species. We used radio-telemetry data from northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) in southern Texas from 2000 to 2005 to develop a stochastic simulation model for bobwhite populations. Our model is based on difference equations, with stochastic variables drawn from normal and Weibull distributions. We simulated bobwhite populations to 100 yr and evaluated our model by comparing results with independent estimates of 4 population parameters (spring and fall density, finite rate of increase in the fall population [], and winter juv:ad age ratios). Using a quasi-extinction criterion of ≤40 birds (density = ≤0.05 birds/ha), probability of persistence to 100 yr was 88.3% (106 of 120 simulations) for the spring population and 96.7% (116 of 120 simulations) for the fall population. Using a less restrictive quasi-extinction criteria (≤ 14 birds), probability of persistence was 93.3% (112 of 120 simulations) for the spring population and 98.3% (118 of 120 simulations) for the fall population. Simulated population parameters were similar to independent estimates for 4 of 4 population parameters. Winter age ratios differed between our model ( = 4.98 juv:ad, n = 120, SE = 0.32) and empirical age ratios from harvested bobwhites on our study area ( = 2.85 juv:ad, n = 25, SE = 0.24). However, when we corrected harvest age ratios for bias in juvenile harvest ( = 3.85 juv:ad, n = 25, SE = 0.32) simulated and empirical estimates were similar. Our model appears to be a reliable predictor of bobwhite populations in the southern Texas. Our simulation results indicate that bobwhite hunters and managers can expect excellent bobwhite hunting (fall populations ≥2.2 birds per ha) in about one of 10 yr.