Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9
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发表时间：
2021-01-18
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Ziehn, Tilo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gillett, Nathan P.;Kirchmeier-Young, Megan;Ziehn, Tilo
《巴黎协定》缔约方同意将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在“远低于工业化前水平2摄氏度的水平，并努力将气温上升幅度限制在工业化前水平1.5摄氏度以内”。监测迄今为止人为气候强迫对变暖的贡献，是了解实现这些目标的进展的关键。在这里，我们使用来自探测和归因模型比对项目的气候模式模拟，以及正则化的最佳指纹分析，表明与1850-1900年相比，2010-2019年，人为强迫导致全球平均近地表气温升高0.9至1.3摄氏度，而观测到的升温幅度为1.1摄氏度。温室气体和气溶胶分别贡献了1.2至1.9摄氏度和-0.7至-0.1摄氏度的变化。而自然力量的贡献可以忽略不计。这些结果表明了迄今为止人类对气候的巨大影响，以及实现《巴黎协定》目标所需采取行动的紧迫性。
Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases "well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels". Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 degrees C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010-2019 relative to 1850-1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 degrees C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 degrees C and -0.7 to -0.1 degrees C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.