Minimum record length for detecting a prospective uniform sea level acceleration at a tide gauge station
Minimum record length for detecting a prospective uniform sea level acceleration at a tide gauge station
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DOI：
10.1080/27669645.2022.2045697
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发表时间：
2022-04
期刊：
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
H. Iz;C. Shum
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Iz;C. Shum
摘要在日益变暖的地球环境下，验潮站对均匀海平面加速度的准确探测对于海岸带长期风险评估具有重要意义。虽然验潮站检测平均海平面趋势所需的时间尺度在过去得到了很好的研究，但很少有研究针对深度海平面加速度的相同问题。在这项研究中，我们证明了在验潮站辨别均匀海平面加速度的能力取决于其大小，系统和随机海平面变化，随机变化的自相关程度，其历史记录的长度和所需的统计显著性水平的估计。我们提供了一个公式来估计所需的最小记录长度需要检测一个统计上显着的前瞻性均匀加速度在沿海或岛屿验潮站的海平面记录的回顾性分析的基础上。为了证明其有效性，在全球分布的19个具有长记录的验潮站计算了检测统计上显着的预期均匀加速度所需的最小记录长度。
ABSTRACT The unambiguous detection of a uniform sea level acceleration at a tide gauge station is important under an increasingly warmer Earth for the long-term coastal risk assessments. Although the timescales needed for detecting mean sea level trends at tide gauges were well investigated in the past, very few studies addressed the same issue for the sea level accelerations in depth. In this study, we demonstrate that the ability to discern a uniform sea level acceleration at a tide gauge station depends on its magnitude, systematic and random sea level variations, the degree of autocorrelation of the random variations, the length of its historical record and the desired statistical significance level of its estimate. We offer a formulary to estimate the required minimum record lengths needed to detect a statistically significant prospective uniform acceleration at a coastal or Island tide gauge station based on the retrospective analyses of its sea level record. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the minimum record lengths required to detect statistically significant prospective uniform accelerations were calculated at 19 globally distributed tide gauge stations with long records.