Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?
Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.019
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Reynolds, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ortiz, Rodomiro;Sayre, Kenneth D.;Reynolds, Matthew
气候变化可能会严重影响占全球粮食产量21%和2亿公顷农田的小麦作物。本文综述了在一些最重要的小麦种植区解决气候变化可能对小麦造成的预期影响的一些方法，即种质适应、系统管理和缓解。未来的气候情景表明，全球变暖可能对某些地区的小麦作物有利，但可能会降低已经存在最佳温度的地区的生产力。例如，到2050年，由于印度-恒河平原（IGPs）可能发生的气候变化——目前是有利的、高潜力的、灌溉的、少降雨的大环境的一部分，占全球小麦产量的15%——其多达51%的面积可能被重新归类为热应激的、灌溉的、短季节生产的大环境。除非向南亚农民提供合适的品种和作物管理方法并使其采用，否则这种转变也将导致小麦产量大幅下降。在相同的气候情景下，北美和欧亚大陆凉爽、温和的小麦大环境所覆盖的面积可能扩大到北纬65度。为了适应和减轻气候变化对穷人小麦供应的影响，种质科学家和农学家正在开发耐热小麦种质，以及更适合保护性农业的品种。令人鼓舞的结果包括通过常规方法和生物技术确定耐热等位基因的来源并将其渗入育种群体。同样，农学家和推广人员也致力于通过减少耕作和焚烧作物残茬来减少二氧化碳排放。缓解研究承诺通过使用红外传感器和标准化差异植被指数（NDVI）来减少一氧化二氮的排放，NDVI可以确定正确的施肥时间和正确的施肥量。小麦遗传学家和生理学家也在评估小麦的野生近缘种作为抑制土壤硝化作用基因的潜在来源。通过现有的以小麦为特色的全球和区域研究促进发展网络，技术和知识可以流动，使农民能够面对与气候变化有关的风险。(c) 2008 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Climate change could strongly affect the wheat crop that accounts for 21 % of food and 200 million hectares of farmland worldwide. This article reviews some of the approaches for addressing the expected effects that climate change may likely inflict on wheat in some of the most important wheat growing areas, namely germplasm adaptation, system management, and mitigation. Future climate scenarios suggest that global warming may be beneficial for the wheat crop in some regions, but could reduce productivity in zones where optimal temperatures already exist. For example, by 2050, as a result of possible climate shifts in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) - currently part of the favorable, high potential, irrigated, low rainfall mega-environment, which accounts for 15% of global wheat production - as much as 51 % of its area might be reclassified as a heat-stressed, irrigated, short-season production mega-environment. This shift would also represent a significant reduction in wheat yields, unless appropriate cultivars and crop management practices were offered to and adopted by South Asian farmers, Under the same climate scenarios, the area covered by the cool, temperate wheat mega-environment could expand as far as 65 degrees N in both North America and Eurasia. To adapt and mitigate the climate change effects on wheat supplies for the poor, germiplasm scientists and agronomists are developing heat-tolerant wheat germplasm, as well as cultivars better adapted to conservation agriculture. Encouraging results include identifying sources of alleles for heat tolerance and their introgression into breeding populations through conventional methods and biotechnology. Likewise, agronomists and extension agents are aiming to cut CO2 emissions by reducing tillage and the burning of crop residues. Mitigation research promises to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide by using infrared sensors and the normalized differential vegetative index (NDVI) that determines the right times and correct amounts of fertilizer to apply. Wheat geneticists and physiologists are also assessing wild relatives of wheat as potential sources of genes with inhibitory effects on soil nitrification. Through the existing global and regional research-for-development networks featuring wheat, technology and knowledge can flow to allow farmers to face the risks associated with climate change. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.