Management Options During the 2011–2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation
Management Options During the 2011–2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation
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2011-2012 年阿巴拉契科拉河干旱期间的管理方案：系统动态模型评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
G. Kiker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Leitman;W. E. Pine;G. Kiker
阿巴拉契科拉-查塔胡奇-弗林特河流域（ACF）是美国东南部的一个大分水岭。2012年，该流域经历了第二次严重干旱，也是近15年来第三次多年干旱。在严重干旱期间，水库和河流的低水位会对水库、河流和河口生态系统造成经济和生态影响。在干旱期间，通过上游水库释放和需求管理来增加阿巴拉契科拉河的流量是直观的，也是经常被建议的解决方案，可以最大限度地减少下游的影响。我们评估了现有水库系统是否可以通过增加流量来最大限度地减少干旱对下游用水用户和生态系统的影响。我们的分析发现，在2012年观测到的极端干旱中，水库放水量的增加甚至不足以将阿巴拉契科拉河的流量增加到2007年干旱时观测到的水平。这表明，管理储存的水资源根本不足以抵消极端干旱事件。由于在各种气候预测下，干旱频率和强度预计会增加，因此我们的研究结果表明，有必要对水资源管理人员如何满足ACF日益增长的用水需求进行批判性评估。应解决的关键不确定性包括(1)确定导致2012年弗林特河排放量极低的因素，以及(2)确定如何通过需求管理“节省”的水分配给储存或传递给下游生态系统需求，这是美国陆军工程兵团正在修订的ACF水控制手册的一部分。
The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin (ACF) is a large watershed in the southeastern United States. In 2012, the basin experienced the second year of a severe drought and the third multi-year drought in the last 15 years. During severe droughts, low reservoir and river levels can cause economic and ecological impacts to the reservoir, river, and estuarine ecosystems. During drought, augmenting Apalachicola River discharge through upstream reservoir releases and demand management are intuitive and often-suggested solutions to minimizing downstream effects. We assessed whether the existing reservoir system could be operated to minimize drought impacts on downstream water users and ecosystems through flow augmentation. Our analysis finds that in extreme drought such as observed during 2012, increases in water releases from reservoir storage are insufficient to even increase Apalachicola River discharge to levels observed in the 2007 drought. This suggests that there is simply not enough water available in managed storage to offset extreme drought events. Because drought frequency and intensity is predicted to increase under a variety of climate forecasts, our results demonstrate the need for a critical assessment of how water managers will meet increasing water demands in the ACF. Key uncertainties that should be addressed include (1) identifying the factors that led to extremely low Flint River discharge in 2012, and (2) determining how water “saved” via demand management is allocated to storage or passed to downstream ecosystem needs as part of the ongoing revisions to the ACF Water Control Manual by the US Army Corps of Engineers.