Malignant side effects of null-hypothesis significance testing
Malignant side effects of null-hypothesis significance testing
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DOI：
10.1177/0959354314525282
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Branch, Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Branch, Marc
六年来已发表的信息无可辩驳地表明，零假设显着性检验（NHST）无法提供有关研究结果可靠性的信息。尽管如此，它们仍然是心理学编辑决策的核心。看来有两个原因促成了这种做法的持续进行。第一，调查信息表明，大多数心理学研究人员错误地认为 p 值提供了有关结果可靠性的信息。第二，有时采取的立场是，利用它们来做决策本质上是良性的。这种错误的信念已经被多次指出，因此由于这种误解明显持续存在，因此简单地予以涵盖。 NHST 是良性的观点受到七种“副作用”的挑战，这些副作用继续阻碍心理科学的有效发展。文章最后提出了一些关于可能的替代方案的建议，并向心理学研究人员提出了开发新方法来实际评估研究结果可靠性的挑战。
Six decades-worth of published information has shown irrefutably that null-hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) provide no information about the reliability of research outcomes. Nevertheless, they are still the core of editorial decision-making in Psychology. Two reasons appear to contribute to the continuing practice. One, survey information suggests that a majority of psychological researchers incorrectly believe that p values provide information about reliability of results. Two, a position sometimes taken is that using them to make decisions has been essentially benign. The mistaken belief has been pointed out many times, so it is briefly covered because of the apparent persistence of the misunderstanding. The idea that NHSTs have been benign is challenged by seven "side-effects" that continue to retard effective development of psychological science. The article concludes with both a few suggestions about possible alternatives and a challenge to psychological researchers to develop new methods that actually assess the reliability of research findings.