A progressive flow-routing model for rapid assessment of debris-flow inundation
A progressive flow-routing model for rapid assessment of debris-flow inundation
复制标题
用于快速评估泥石流淹没的渐进式流程模型
DOI：
10.1007/s10346-022-01890-y
复制
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Rengers, Francis K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gorr, Alexander N.;McGuire, Luke A.;Youberg, Ann M.;Rengers, Francis K.
泥石流对山区社区构成严重危害，因此仍然需要有办法划定与泥石流泛滥有关的危险区。在某些情况下，例如野火之后的情况，泥石流的可能性和规模可能会突然增加，需要进行快速的灾害评估，洪水模型的计算要求在其实用性中发挥作用。无法有效地确定预期的泥石流事件的下游影响仍然是我们理解，减轻和评估泥石流灾害的能力的关键差距。为了更好地了解泥石流的下游影响，我们引入了一个计算效率高，降低复杂性的淹没模型，我们称之为渐进式泥石流路由和淹没模型（ProDF）。我们根据加利福尼亚州Montecito附近五个流域的洪水地图校准了ProDF，这些流域在2017年托马斯火灾后不久产生了泥石流。PRODF在40平方公里的研究区域内再现了70%的测绘矿床。虽然这项研究的重点是一系列的野火后泥石流，ProDF不限于模拟泥石流淹没野火后，可以适用于任何情况下，它是可能的，以估计泥石流量。然而，鉴于其能够再现2017年托马斯火灾烧伤疤痕下游的碎屑流沉积物，以及与这一40平方公里研究区域的模拟相关的适度运行时间，结果表明ProDF可能特别有希望用于野火后危险评估应用。
Debris flows pose a significant hazard to communities in mountainous areas, and there is a continued need for methods to delineate hazard zones associated with debris-flow inundation. In certain situations, such as scenarios following wildfire, where there could be an abrupt increase in the likelihood and size of debris flows that necessitates a rapid hazard assessment, the computational demands of inundation models play a role in their utility. The inability to efficiently determine the downstream effects of anticipated debris-flow events remains a critical gap in our ability to understand, mitigate, and assess debris-flow hazards. To better understand the downstream effects of debris flows, we introduce a computationally efficient, reduced-complexity inundation model, which we refer to as the Progressive Debris-Flow routing and inundation model (ProDF). We calibrate ProDF against mapped inundation from five watersheds near Montecito, CA, that produced debris flows shortly after the 2017 Thomas Fire. ProDF reproduced 70% of mapped deposits across a 40 km2study area. While this study focuses on a series of post-wildfire debris flows, ProDF is not limited to simulating debris-flow inundation following wildfire and could be applied to any scenario where it is possible to estimate a debris-flow volume. However, given its ability to reproduce mapped debris-flow deposits downstream of the 2017 Thomas Fire burn scar, and the modest run time associated with a simulation over this 40 km2study area, results suggest ProDF may be particularly promising for post-wildfire hazard assessment applications.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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