One-hour-ahead wind speed prediction using a Bayesian methodology
One-hour-ahead wind speed prediction using a Bayesian methodology
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DOI：
10.1109/pes.2006.1709479
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发表时间：
2006-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Miranda;R. Dunn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Miranda;R. Dunn
风力发电在市场驱动的电力系统中的贡献以及风力资源的不确定性导致了许多关于预测未来风速/发电量的方法的研究工作。英国的运营平衡市场等应用将受益于对所有发电机可用功率的准确提前一小时预测，风能也不例外。本文重点研究了利用贝叶斯方法进行提前一小时风速预测，以确定风资源。为了测试这种方法，两年的风速数据从气象站建模为自回归过程。在本文中，所使用的方法与所采用的模型和预测结果进行了描述和持久性方法相比。所得结果表明，贝叶斯推理可以是一个有用的工具，在风速/功率预测，特别是由于固有的灵活性的方法
The contribution of wind power in market-driven power systems together with the uncertain nature of the wind resource have led to many research efforts on methodologies to predict future wind speed/power production. Applications such as the operational balancing market in the UK would benefit from accurate one-hour-ahead forecasts of the available power from all generators, wind being no exception. This paper focuses on one-hour-ahead wind speed prediction using a Bayesian approach to characterise the wind resource. To test the approach, two years of wind speed data from a weather station were modelled as an autoregressive process. In this paper, the methodology used is described together with the model employed and prediction results are presented and compared to the persistence method. The results obtained indicate that Bayesian inferencing can be a useful tool in wind speed/power prediction, particularly due to the flexibility inherent to the methodology