Future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom
Future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom
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DOI：
10.1017/s0144686x05004289
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Rothgang, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Comas-Herrera, A;Wittenberg, R;Rothgang, H
本文报告了欧盟委员会资助的一项关于德国、意大利、西班牙和英国未来长期护理支出的研究结果，并根据对未来的一些假设对这四个国家未来的长期护理支出进行了预测。宏观模拟(或基于细胞的)模型被用来根据一组共同的假设做出可比较的预测。一个中央基本情况作为一个比较点，用来探讨模型对关键决定因素备选方案的敏感性。考察了模型对老年人未来数量、功能性依赖和非正式护理的普及率、长期供养模式和宏观经济状况的不同假设的敏感性。研究发现，在基本情况下，预计在2000年至2050年期间，每个国家用于长期护理的国内生产总值比例将增加一倍以上。对老年人长期护理服务的预测未来需求对有关老年人未来人数、受扶养率和非正规护理的提供情况的假设很敏感，而预测支出对有关实际服务单位成本和模型结构上升的假设很敏感。就规划而言，重要的是要认识到长期护理支出的未来水平存在相当大的不确定性。
This paper reports findings from a European Commission funded study of future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, and presents projections of future long-term care expenditure in the four countries under a number of assumptions about the future. Macro-simulation (or cell-based) models were used to make comparable projections based on a set of common assumptions. A central base-case served as a point of comparison by which to explore the sensitivity of the models to alternative scenarios for the key determinants. The sensitivity of the models to variant assumptions about the future numbers of older people, the prevalence of functional dependency and informal care, patterns of long-term provision, and macroeconomic conditions are examined. It was found that, under the base-case, the proportion of gross domestic product spent on long-term care is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050 in each country. The projected future demand for long-term care services for older people is sensitive to assumptions about the future number of older people, the prevalence of dependency and the availability of informal care, and projected expenditure is sensitive to assumptions about rises in the real unit-costs of services and the structure of the models. It is important, for planning purposes, to recognise the considerable uncertainty about future levels of long-term care expenditure.