Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China
复制标题
新疆塔里木河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价模型
DOI：
10.1007/s11769-009-0089-x
复制
发表时间：
2009-03-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Zhao Ruifeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meng Lihong;Chen Yaning;Zhao Ruifeng
探讨了水资源承载能力的综合评价方法，并应用模糊综合评价法建立了评价模型。根据塔里木河流域2002年的自然、社会、经济、水资源等资料，利用该模型对塔里木河流域水资源承载能力进行了评价。结果表明，目前水资源开发利用程度较高、水资源承载能力十分有限的阿克苏、喀什两州的综合得分分别为0.438和0.454，水资源承载能力较高的克孜勒苏柯尔克孜族自治州为0.620，和田地区和巴音郭勒蒙古自治州介于两者之间。总体来看，塔里木河流域综合等级为0.508，目前水资源开发利用已达到较高程度。因此，应加强对流域水资源的综合管理，科学、可持续地利用水资源。
This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002, we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively, where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, 0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, where water resources carrying capacity is much higher, and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus, we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.