Northeast Atlantic and North Sea Storminess as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model during 1958-2001 and Comparison with Observations
Northeast Atlantic and North Sea Storminess as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model during 1958-2001 and Comparison with Observations
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1958-2001年区域气候模型模拟的东北大西洋和北海暴风雨及其与观测的比较
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Feser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Weisse;H. Storch;F. Feser
对过去 44 年的区域气候模型模拟的东北大西洋和北海风暴气候进行了分析。该模型模拟了国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心 (NCEP-NCAR) 再分析推动的 1958 年至 2001 年期间。与观测结果的比较表明，该模型能够再现与影响相关的风暴指数，例如每年强风暴和中风暴的数量或风暴总数以及近地表风速的年内百分位数。这些指数描述了频率的逐年变化，以及风暴事件平均强度的变化。对这些指数的分析表明，自模拟期（1958年）开始以来，北大西洋风暴路径出口附近和北海南部的每年平均风暴数量有所增加，但北海的增加后来有所减弱，并且自大约1990-95年以来，东北大西洋的每年平均风暴数量一直在减少。最严重风暴的频率在北大西洋东北部遵循类似的模式，而模型域的其他区域发生的严重风暴太少，无法对这些区域进行统计分析。
An analysis of the storm climate of the northeast Atlantic and the North Sea as simulated by a regional climate model for the past 44 yr is presented. The model simulates the period 1958–2001 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP– NCAR) reanalysis. Comparison with observations shows that the model is capable of reproducing impactrelated storm indices such as the number of severe and moderate storms per year or the total number of storms and upper intra-annual percentiles of near-surface wind speed. The indices describe both the yearto-year variability of the frequency, as well as changes in the average intensity of storm events. Analysis of these indices reveals that the average number of storms per year has increased near the exit of the North Atlantic storm track and over the southern North Sea since the beginning of the simulation period (1958), but the increase has attenuated later over the North Sea and the average number of storms per year has been decreasing over the northeast Atlantic since about 1990–95. The frequency of the most severe storms follows a similar pattern over the northeast North Atlantic while too few severe storms occurred in other areas of the model domain, preventing a statistical analysis for these areas.