Spatial analysis of time-series changes in livestock distribution by detection of local spatial associations in Mongolia.
Spatial analysis of time-series changes in livestock distribution by detection of local spatial associations in Mongolia.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.01.002
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发表时间：
2010-12
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
I. Saizen;A. Maekawa;N. Yamamura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Saizen;A. Maekawa;N. Yamamura
自20世纪90年代初以来，蒙古牲畜种群的快速变化已成为草原可持续管理的一个非常重要的问题。利用基于行政区划的GIS数据，对1992年、1999年、2002年和2006年蒙古牲畜种群的空间分布和变化进行了研究。尽管由于1992 - 1999年和2002 - 2006年由计划经济向自由市场经济的转变，以及1999 - 2002年夏季干旱和严冬的不利组合的影响，牲畜总数发生了巨大变化，但空间自相关（LISA）统计的局部指标没有发现山羊以外的任何牲畜的空间关联发生显著变化。山羊是唯一在空间关联上表现出显著变化的动物，在家畜密度较高的地区，山羊数量呈增加趋势。考虑到在所有蒙古家畜中，山羊对草原的影响最大，决策者应该重视这些领域，以确保未来草原的可持续性。这可以在蒙古成功地应用环境管理方面发挥关键作用。
The rapid change in the livestock population in Mongolia since the beginning of the 1990s has been a very important issue in terms of the sustainable management of grasslands. We investigated the spatial distribution and changes in the populations of Mongolian livestock for the years 1992, 1999, 2002, and 2006 using GIS datasets based on administrative units. Although the total livestock population had changed drastically owing to the shift from a planned economy to a free market economy from 1992 to 1999 and 2002 to 2006 – as well as the impact of the dzud, an adverse combination of summer drought followed by a harsh winter, between 1999 and 2002 – no significant change in the spatial association of any livestock other than goats was detected by the local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) statistics. Goats were the only animals to show a significant change in their spatial association, and the goat population is increasing in areas surrounded by a high density of livestock. Considering that of all Mongolian domestic animals, goats have the greatest impact on grasslands, policy makers should pay attention to these areas to ensure the sustainability of grasslands in the future. This could play a key role in the successful application of environmental management in Mongolia.