Methodology for energy demand prediction in developing countries;a Tanzania case study
Methodology for energy demand prediction in developing countries;a Tanzania case study
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发展中国家能源需求预测方法；坦桑尼亚案例研究
DOI：
10.1080/17512549.2013.865544
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Tomonari Yashiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mohamed Fatma;Tomonari Yashiro
研究表明，在不久的将来，发展中国家的能源需求预计将占能源需求总量的很大一部分。虽然目前与工业国家的需求相比仍然很小，但如果不能充分满足能源需求，长期的能源需求激增将对环境和社会发展构成巨大威胁。通过国家和区域政策进行有效的能源规划和管理是最大限度地减少能源需求对环境的影响的关键，同时也是提供最佳能源供应以满足社会发展需要的潜力的关键。不幸的是，缺乏记录保存和糟糕的数据管理，详细的数据可用性对有效的能源管理和规划构成了巨大的威胁。目前，大多数发展中国家，特别是撒哈拉以南非洲国家的能源政策都是一般性的国家政策，集中于能源供应，由于缺乏数据，没有重点控制能源需求驱动因素。本研究提出了一种新的方法，结合土地利用特征，卫星图像分析和简单的家庭能源调查的能源消费趋势模型所需的非法家庭最终用途的信息。该方法可以对家庭一级能源需求的趋势提供一般性的概述。
Studies show that energy demand in developing countries is expected to contribute a significant amount to the total energy demand in the near future. Although still currently small compared to demand in industrial countries, a prolonged energy demand surge poses a great threat to the environment and social development when not met adequately. Efficient energy planning and management through national and regional policies is the key in minimizing the impact of energy demand to the environment while at the same time giving the potential of providing optimal energy supply to meet the social needs for development. Unfortunately, lack of record keeping and poor data management, detailed data availability posses a great threat in effective energy management and planning. Currently, energy policies in most developing countries especially in the Sub-Saharan Africa are generic national policies concentrating on energy supply with no focus on controlling energy demand drivers due to lack of data availability. This study introduces a new method to illicit household end-use information needed in energy consumption analysis trend models by combining land-use characteristics, satellite image analysis and simple household energy survey. The method can give a generic overview of trends behind energy demand in household level.