Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China.
Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China.
复制标题
使用青少年暴力风险结构化评估 (SAVRY) 预测再犯罪：中国湖南省男性少年犯的 5 年跟踪研究
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0169251
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Wang X
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou J;Witt K;Cao X;Chen C;Wang X
青少年暴力犯罪是一个严重的世界性公共卫生问题。目的探讨青少年暴力风险结构化评估（SAVRY）对中国男性少年犯暴力再犯的预测作用，以及与暴力再犯相关的风险/保护域（项）。方法对246名男性少年犯进行调查。SAVRY域由训练有素的评分员根据档案审查和与参与者及其法定监护人的访谈进行评分。在五年的跟踪调查中，从警方记录中收集了关于暴力犯罪的进一步逮捕、指控或定罪的信息。结果在5年的随访期间，63名（25.6%）少年犯因再次暴力犯罪而再次被捕。受试者工作特征（ROC）分析显示，SAVRY总分、风险和保护评分域的曲线下面积（auc）范围为0.60至0.68。单因素logistic回归分析显示，30项SAVRY问卷中有7项与再犯显著相关；解释了36.2%的方差。多元logistic回归分析显示，独立预测项目为第2项（“非暴力犯罪史”）、第17项（“消极态度”）、第18项（“冒险/冲动”）和第20项（“愤怒管理问题”）。这四项加起来解释了25.0%的再犯差异。结论SAVRY可为湖南省某青少年看守所男性少年犯有效暴力风险评估与管理方法的制定和评价提供有意义的信息。
Background Juvenile violent offending is a serious worldwide public health issue. Objective The study examined whether the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) can be used to predict violent reoffending in Chinese male juvenile offenders, and to determine which risk/protective domains (items) are associated with violent recidivism. Methods A total of 246 male juvenile offenders were recruited. SAVRY domains were scored by trained raters based on file review and interviews with participants and their legal guardians. Information on further arrests, charges, or convictions for violent offences were collected from police records over a five year follow-up. Results Over the course of the five year follow-up periods, 63 (25.6%) juvenile offenders were re-arrested for a further violent reoffence. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses showed Areas Under the Curve (AUCs) ranging from 0.60 to 0.68 for the SAVRY total, risk and protective score domains. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that 7 of the 30 SAVRY items were significantly associated with reoffending; explaining 36.2% of the variance. Backward stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed the independently predictive items were items 2 (‘history of non-violent offending’), 17 (‘negative attitudes’), 18 (‘risk-taking/impulsivity’), and 20 (‘anger management problems’). Together these four items explained 25.0% of the variance in reoffending. Conclusions The results suggested that the SAVRY can be meaningfully used to inform the development and evaluation of effective violence risk assessment and management approaches for male juvenile offenders detained in a Youth Detention Center in Hunan province, China.