The "Dry-Run" Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control.
The "Dry-Run" Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control.
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“模拟”分析：一种评估混杂控制风险评分的方法。
DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwx032
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Stürmer,Til
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wyss,Richard;Hansen,BenB;Ellis,AlanR;Gagne,JoshuaJ;Desai,RishiJ;Glynn,RobertJ;Stürmer,Til
倾向评分（PS）模型控制混杂的能力可通过评价PS调整后暴露组间的协变量平衡来评估。评估疾病风险评分（DRS）模型控制混杂的能力的最佳策略尚不清楚。DRS模型不能通过在整个人群中进行平衡检查来评估，通常通过预测诊断和拟合优度检验来评估。一种拟议的替代方法是“模拟”分析，它将未接触人群分为“假接触”和“假未接触”两组，以便观察到的协变量的差异类似于实际接触人群和未接触人群之间的差异。由于没有暴露效应将伪暴露组和伪未暴露组分开，DRS模型通过其在该伪人群中调整后检索无混杂零估计值的能力进行评价。我们使用模拟和实证的例子来比较传统的DRS性能指标与干运行验证。在模拟中，与C统计量和拟合优度检验相比，干运行通常可以改善对混杂控制的评估。在实证示例中，PS和DRS匹配给出了相似的结果，并且在协变量平衡（PS匹配）和控制空运行分析（DRS匹配）中的混杂方面表现出良好的性能。干运行分析可能被证明是有用的，通过DRS模型评估混杂控制。
A propensity score (PS) model's ability to control confounding can be assessed by evaluating covariate balance across exposure groups after PS adjustment. The optimal strategy for evaluating a disease risk score (DRS) model's ability to control confounding is less clear. DRS models cannot be evaluated through balance checks within the full population, and they are usually assessed through prediction diagnostics and goodness-of-fit tests. A proposed alternative is the “dry-run” analysis, which divides the unexposed population into “pseudo-exposed” and “pseudo-unexposed” groups so that differences on observed covariates resemble differences between the actual exposed and unexposed populations. With no exposure effect separating the pseudo-exposed and pseudo-unexposed groups, a DRS model is evaluated by its ability to retrieve an unconfounded null estimate after adjustment in this pseudo-population. We used simulations and an empirical example to compare traditional DRS performance metrics with the dry-run validation. In simulations, the dry run often improved assessment of confounding control, compared with theCstatistic and goodness-of-fit tests. In the empirical example, PS and DRS matching gave similar results and showed good performance in terms of covariate balance (PS matching) and controlling confounding in the dry-run analysis (DRS matching). The dry-run analysis may prove useful in evaluating confounding control through DRS models.