Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic, socioeconomic, and transportation perspective
Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic, socioeconomic, and transportation perspective
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从人口、社会经济和交通角度评估飓风引起的停电
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-018-3260-9
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
and Arghandeh, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ulak, Mehmet B.;Kocatepe, A.;Konila Sriram, Lalitha M.;Ozguven, Eren E.;and Arghandeh, R.
自然灾害对基础设施造成毁灭性影响，并扰乱受灾地区日常生活的方方面面。为了缓解这些灾害造成的问题，首先需要进行影响评估。因此，本文重点介绍两步方法来确定飓风赫尔米恩对佛罗里达州首府塔拉哈西市的影响。通过对停电的空间和统计分析，研究了赫米恩影响的区域和社会经济变化。第一步包括空间分析和聚类分析，以说明受停电影响的客户数量。此步骤旨在确定受中断影响的客户是否聚集。第二步涉及贝叶斯空间自回归模型，以确定几个人口统计、社会经济和交通相关变量对受停电影响的客户规模的影响。结果显示，受停电影响的客户在空间上聚集在特定区域，而不是分散。这表明需要查明这些脆弱地点并制定战略以减少飓风造成的破坏。此外，发现受影响客户数量的增加与多个变量有关，例如电力网络和总出行次数以及人口因素。从本研究结果中获得的信息可以帮助紧急官员确定关键和/或复原力较差的地区，并确定那些相对其他群体受飓风后果影响更大的人口和社会经济群体。
Natural disasters have devastating effects on the infrastructure and disrupt every aspect of daily life in the regions they hit. To alleviate problems caused by these disasters, first an impact assessment is needed. As such, this paper focuses on a two-step methodology to identify the impact of Hurricane Hermine on the City of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida. The regional and socioeconomic variations in the Hermine’s impact were studied via spatially and statistically analyzing power outages. First step includes a spatial analysis to illustrate the magnitude of customers affected by power outages together with a clustering analysis. This step aims to determine whether the customers affected from outages are clustered or not. Second step involves a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model in order to identify the effects of several demographic-, socioeconomic-, and transportation-related variables on the magnitude of customers affected by power outages. Results showed that customers affected by outages are spatially clustered at particular regions rather than being dispersed. This indicates the need to pinpoint such vulnerable locations and develop strategies to reduce hurricane-induced disruptions. Furthermore, the increase in the magnitude of affected customers was found to be associated with several variables such as the power network and total generated trips as well as the demographic factors. The information gained from the findings of this study can assist emergency officials in identifying critical and/or less resilient regions, and determining those demographic and socioeconomic groups which were relatively more affected by the consequences of hurricanes than others.
土壤和海拔特征对于飓风引起的停电建模的重要性
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
S. Quiring;Laiyin Zhu;S. Guikema
通讯作者：
S. Guikema