Modeling of US Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Seroprevalence by Age and Sexual Behavior Indicates an Increasing Trend of HPV Infection Following the Sexual Revolution.
Modeling of US Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Seroprevalence by Age and Sexual Behavior Indicates an Increasing Trend of HPV Infection Following the Sexual Revolution.
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根据年龄和性行为对美国人乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 血清阳性率进行的建模表明，性革命后 HPV 感染呈增加趋势。
DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jix333
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gravitt,PattiE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ryser,MarcD;Rositch,Anne;Gravitt,PattiE
背景：美国人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）相关癌症的发病率正在上升，而这些癌症是筛查无法检测到的。它已被假设，但没有直接证明，这是由于增加HPV的患病率在unvaccinated population.MethodsFemale自我报告的终身性伴侣和HPV血清学从国家健康和营养检查调查（NHANES）的数量被用来开发数学模型的性伴侣收购和抗体动态。性行为的建模趋势进行了比较，宫颈腺癌，口咽癌，肛门cancer.ResultsThe年龄特异性HPV血清阳性率数据的发病率数据最好的解释了合作伙伴收购模型，明确占队列依赖性的性行为的变化。天然抗体丧失的平均时间估计值因模型而异，范围从49年到145年不等。在过去的几十年中，推断的性行为的趋势增加的HPV相关的癌症的发病率在UnitedStates.ConclusionsThe研究结果表明，较低的HPV血清阳性率在美国老年妇女主要反映了队列的具体差异性行为，并只轻微归因于免疫减弱随着年龄的增长。我们的研究结果强调了持续监测性行为以及疫苗接种状况的重要性，以预测未来的疾病负担。
BackgroundThe United States has experienced an increase in the incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–related cancers that are not screen-detectable. It has been hypothesized, but not directly demonstrated, that this is due to increasing HPV prevalence in the unvaccinated population.MethodsFemale self-reported numbers of lifetime sex partners and HPV serology from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used to develop mathematical models of sexual partner acquisition and antibody dynamics. Modeled trends in sexual behaviors were compared to incidence data for cervical adenocarcinoma, oropharyngeal cancer, and anal cancer.ResultsThe age-specific HPV seroprevalence data were best explained by a partner acquisition model that explicitly accounted for cohort-dependent changes in sexual behavior. Estimates of the mean time to loss of natural antibodies varied by model, ranging from 49 to 145 years. Inferred trends in sexual behavior over the past decades paralleled the increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers in the United States.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that lower HPV seroprevalence in older US women primarily reflects cohort-specific differences in sexual behaviors, and is only marginally attributable to immune waning with age. Our results emphasize the importance of continuing surveillance of sexual behaviors, alongside vaccine status, to predict future disease burden.