Lights out: impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY.
Lights out: impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY.
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DOI：
10.1097/ede.0b013e318245c61c
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发表时间：
2012-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bell ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anderson GB;Bell ML
关于停电如何影响健康，人们知之甚少。我们调查了2003年8月14日至15日在纽约发生的美国迄今最大规模的停电对死亡率的影响。我们使用一个包含1987-2005年数据的广义线性模型估计了纽约州纽约市的死亡风险。我们纳入了可能的混杂因素，包括天气以及长期和季节性的死亡率趋势。在停电期间，意外死亡(122%[95%可信区间=28%-287%])和非意外(即与疾病相关的)死亡(25%[12%-41%])的死亡率上升，导致大约90人额外死亡。死亡率的增加并不是因为死亡提前了几天；相反，死亡风险在2003年8月期间仍然略有上升。据我们所知，这是首次对停电和非意外死亡进行分析。考虑到能源需求的增加和气候变化可能会给电网带来额外的压力，了解停电对人类健康的影响是相关的。
Little is known about how power outages affect health. We investigated mortality effects of the largest US blackout to date, August 14–15, 2003 in New York, NY. We estimated mortality risk in New York, NY, using a generalized linear model with data from 1987–2005. We incorporated possible confounders, including weather and long-term and seasonal mortality trends. During the blackout, mortality increased for accidental deaths (122% [95% confidence interval = 28%–287%]) and non-accidental (i.e., disease-related) deaths (25% [12%–41%]), resulting in approximately 90 excess deaths. Increased mortality was not from deaths being advanced by a few days; rather, mortality risk remained slightly elevated through August 2003. To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of power outages and non-accidental mortality. Understanding the impact of power outages on human health is relevant, given that increased energy demand and climate change are likely to put added strain on power grids.