Dynamic simulation modelling of policy responses to reduce alcohol-related harms: rationale and procedure for a participatory approach
Dynamic simulation modelling of policy responses to reduce alcohol-related harms: rationale and procedure for a participatory approach
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DOI：
10.17061/phrp2711707
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Rychetnik, Lucie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atkinson, Jo-An;O'Donnell, Eloise;Rychetnik, Lucie
制定有效的应对政策来解决复杂的公共卫生问题可能会受到以下因素的挑战：缺乏对导致问题的风险因素的相互作用的明确性，利益攸关方对最适当和有效的干预方法的不同看法，缺乏证据来支持普遍实施和可接受的干预方法，以及缺乏对有效干预措施的接受。因此，政治考虑、社区宣传和行业游说可能会促成关于最适当行动方针的激烈辩论;这可能会阻碍达成共识，并引起政策阻力。澳大利亚新南威尔士州的酗酒问题及其相关危害提供了此类挑战的相关实例。卫生部门越来越重视动态模拟模型，认为它是支持解决复杂问题的决策的有力工具。它允许政策制定者提出“假设”问题，并在解决方案在真实的世界中实施之前，测试不同政策情景随时间的潜在影响。对模型的分析方法使研究人员、决策者、方案规划者、从业人员和消费者代表能够与专家模型制作者合作，以确保模型透明，纳入不同的证据和观点，更好地满足决策者的决策支持需要，并能够促进建立行动共识。本文概述了一个程序嵌入利益相关者的参与和建立共识的动态模拟模型的发展，可以指导发展有效的，协调的和可接受的政策反应复杂的公共卫生问题，如酒精相关的危害在新南威尔士州。
Development of effective policy responses to address complex public health problems can be challenged by a lack of clarity about the interaction of risk factors driving the problem, differing views of stakeholders on the most appropriate and effective intervention approaches, a lack of evidence to support commonly implemented and acceptable intervention approaches, and a lack of acceptance of effective interventions. Consequently, political considerations, community advocacy and industry lobbying can contribute to a hotly contested debate about the most appropriate course of action; this can hinder consensus and give rise to policy resistance. The problem of alcohol misuse and its associated harms in New South Wales ( NSW), Australia, provides a relevant example of such challenges. Dynamic simulation modelling is increasingly being valued by the health sector as a robust tool to support decision making to address complex problems. It allows policy makers to ask 'what-if' questions and test the potential impacts of different policy scenarios over time, before solutions are implemented in the real world. Participatory approaches to modelling enable researchers, policy makers, program planners, practitioners and consumer representatives to collaborate with expert modellers to ensure that models are transparent, incorporate diverse evidence and perspectives, are better aligned to the decision-support needs of policy makers, and can facilitate consensus building for action. This paper outlines a procedure for embedding stakeholder engagement and consensus building in the development of dynamic simulation models that can guide the development of effective, coordinated and acceptable policy responses to complex public health problems, such as alcohol-related harms in NSW.