A COMPARISON OF UT1-UTC FORECASTS BY DIFFERENT PREDICTION TECHNIQUES
A COMPARISON OF UT1-UTC FORECASTS BY DIFFERENT PREDICTION TECHNIQUES
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发表时间：
2005
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Kosek;M. Kalarus;T. Johnson;W. Wooden;D. Mccarthy;W. Popiński
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作者：
W. Kosek;M. Kalarus;T. Johnson;W. Wooden;D. Mccarthy;W. Popiński
UT1-UTC的平均观测误差现在约为0.006毫秒，相当于地球表面约2.8毫米。通常情况下，即使是未来几天的预报误差也会比观测误差大几倍。本文应用自协方差、自回归、自回归滑动平均和神经网络等不同的随机预测技术对UT1-UTC IERS EOPC04数据(IERS 2004)进行了预测。所有已知的影响，如闰秒和固体地球纬向潮汐(McCarthy和Petit，2003)首先从UT1-UTC的观测值中剔除。将最小二乘(LS)外推法与不同的随机预测方法相结合，对LODR时间序列进行预测。将LS外推与不同的随机预测技术相结合的结果与IERS快速服务/预测中心目前使用的UT1-UTC预测方法的结果进行了比较。
The mean observational error of UT1-UTC is now of the order of 0.006 ms, which corresponds to about 2.8 mm on the Earth’s surface. Usually the prediction error even for a few days in the future is several times greater than the observational error. In this paper different stochastic prediction techniques including autocovariance, autoregressive, autoregressive moving average, and neural networks were applied to predict UT1-UTC IERS EOPC04 data (IERS 2004). All known effects such as leap seconds and solid Earth zonal tides (McCarthy and Petit 2003) were first removed from the observed values of UT1-UTC. To predict the LODR time series the combination of the least-squares (LS) extrapolation with different stochastic prediction methods was applied. The results of the combination of the LS extrapolation with different stochastic prediction techniques were compared with the results of the UT1-UTC prediction method currently used by the IERS Rapid Service/Prediction Centre.