Larger diurnal temperature range undermined later autumn leaf senescence with warming in Europe
Larger diurnal temperature range undermined later autumn leaf senescence with warming in Europe
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.13674
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发表时间：
2023-03
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Jian Wang;Desheng Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jian Wang;Desheng Liu
目的气候变化调节秋叶衰老日期，表现出对植物碳吸收的强烈物候学控制。与日平均温度(Tean)对LSD的延迟效应不同，白天和夜间变暖的不对称性的影响仍然难以捉摸，日温度范围(DTR)的变化就是明证。本研究的目的是利用长时间的情景观测来研究DTR对LSD的生理生态影响，并预测全球变暖下LSD的未来趋势。欧洲地区1950-2015年间主要研究植物物候的分类群。方法采用偏相关分析、多元线性回归和岭回归等方法探讨DTR对LSD的影响。为了量化LSD的潜在驱动因素的重要性，我们训练了随机森林模型，并应用Shapley加性解释方法来分离每个预测者对LSD的边际贡献。对于LSD的建模和预测，我们首先评估了两种温度驱动的LSD模型[即凉度-白天(CDD，没有DTR效应)和昼夜温度CDD(DNCDD，有DTR效应)]，然后将它们应用于预测未来的LSD。增加的Tmeand延迟了LSD，而较大的DTR总体上有促进作用。考虑到DTR效应，LSD的敏感性比目前估计的低14%(2.4vs.2.8 Days °C−1)。与变暖不对称相关的干旱胁迫和植物功能性状(即植物等水和水分利用效率)潜在地解释了DTR对LSD的促进作用。我们发现，目前对未来LSD的预测被高估了，因为DTR效应被打折了，这表明需要充分了解植物物候如何响应变暖不对称。主要结论我们的发现强调了DTR在控制具有超前-显性效应的LSD变异中的重要性，并呼吁改进包括DTR效应的物候学模型。鉴于DTR在过去几十年显示出全球缩小的趋势，需要更多的努力来了解变暖不对称和植被对气候变化的潜在生态影响。
AimClimate change regulates autumn leaf senescence date (LSD), exhibiting a strong phenological control of plant carbon uptake. Unlike the delaying effect of daily mean temperature (Tmean) on LSD, the impact of warming asymmetry in daytime and nighttime, as evidenced by variations of the diurnal temperature range (DTR), remains elusive. The objectives of this study were to investigate physiological and ecological impacts of DTR on LSD using long‐termin situobservations and to predict the future trends of LSD under warming.LocationEurope.Time period1950–2015.Major taxa studiedPlant phenology.MethodsWe used partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and ridge regression to explore the impacts of DTR on LSD. To quantify the importance of potential drivers of LSD, we trained random forest models and applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to isolate the marginal contributions of each predictor on LSD. For LSD modelling and projection, we first evaluated two temperature‐driven LSD models [i.e., cooling‐degree‐day (CDD, without DTR effect) and day–night‐temperature CDD (DNCDD, with DTR effect)], then applied them to predict future LSDs.ResultsWe found that observational increases inTmeanand DTR had contrasting effects on LSD. IncreasedTmeandelayed the LSD, whereas larger DTR overall had an advancing effect. Considering the DTR effect, theTmeansensitivity of LSD was 14% lower than presently estimated (2.4 vs. 2.8 days °C−1). Warming asymmetry‐related drought stress and plant functional traits (i.e., plant isohydricity and water‐use efficiency) potentially explained the advancing effect of DTR on LSD. We found that current projections of future LSD are overestimated because the DTR effect is discounted, suggesting the need for an adequate understanding of how plant phenology responds to warming asymmetry.Main conclusionsOur findings highlight the importance of DTR in controlling LSD variations with an advancing‐dominant effect and call for the improvement of phenology modelling incorporating the DTR effect. Given that DTR showed a globally narrowing trend over the last several decades, more efforts are needed to understand the potential ecological impacts of warming asymmetry and vegetation response to climate change.