Reducing Bias in Citizens’ Perception of Crime Rates: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Burglary Prevalence
Reducing Bias in Citizens’ Perception of Crime Rates: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Burglary Prevalence
复制标题
减少公民对犯罪率认知的偏差：来自入室盗窃发生率现场实验的证据
作者：
Martin Vinæs Larsen;Asmus Leth Olsen
平均而言，公民在评估当前犯罪趋势的轨迹时过于悲观。在这项研究中，我们检查是否可以纠正这种关于入室盗窃的知觉偏差。通过现场实验和大型小组调查(n=4,895)，我们探索了公共信息运动是否可以减少对入室盗窃盛行的误解。在直接邮寄活动中嵌入关于入室盗窃的正确信息，我们发现有可能大幅减少公民的误解。重要的是，这些影响不是短暂的：它们在邮件发出几周后就可以检测到，但它们是暂时的，最终感知偏差重新出现。我们的结果表明，如果不断向公民提供关于犯罪率的正确信息，他们就不会那么悲观了。因此，减少公民对犯罪率认知的偏见可能是调整关于犯罪的(DIS)信息供应的问题。
Citizens are, on average, too pessimistic when assessing the trajectory of current crime trends. In this study, we examine whether we can correct this perceptual bias with respect to burglaries. Using a field experiment coupled with a large panel survey (n=4,895), we explore whether a public information campaign can reduce misperceptions about the prevalence of burglaries. Embedding the correct information about burglary rates in a direct mail campaign, we find that it is possible to substantially reduce citizens’ misperceptions. Importantly, the effects are not short-lived: they are detectable several weeks after the mailer was sent, but they are temporary and eventually the perceptual bias reemerges. Our results suggest that if citizens were continually supplied with correct information about crime rates they would be less pessimistic. Reducing bias in citizens’ perception of crime rates might therefore be a matter of adjusting the supply of (dis)information about crime.