Trade-offs between mobility restrictions and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
Trade-offs between mobility restrictions and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
复制标题
流动限制与SARS-CoV-2传播之间的权衡。
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2020.0936
复制
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Litvak N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gösgens M;Hendriks T;Boon M;Steenbakkers W;Heesterbeek H;van der Hofstad R;Litvak N
在应对COVID-19疫情时，各国政府面临着平衡公共卫生和经济的困境。流动性在这一困境中发挥着核心作用，因为人员流动既促进了经济活动，也促进了病毒传播。我们使用区域间旅行者数量形式的流动性数据，扩展常用的SEIR模型，以包括区域间的流动性。我们量化的流动性和感染传播之间的权衡在一个单一的参数，由政策制定者选择，并提出了限制流动性的策略，使限制是最小的，而感染传播是有效的限制。我们考虑的限制，国家划分为地区，并研究在这些地区内的流动性是允许的情况下，他们之间不允许。我们提出了启发式方法来近似这些地区的最佳选择。我们根据我们的权衡来评估所获得的限制。结果表明，当感染高度集中时，例如在几个城市周围，由于超级传播事件在COVID-19的传播中发挥重要作用，我们的方法特别有效。我们在荷兰的例子证明我们的方法。当流动性数据可用时，结果适用范围更广。
In their response to the COVID-19 outbreak, governments face the dilemma to balance public health and economy. Mobility plays a central role in this dilemma because the movement of people enables both economic activity and virus spread. We use mobility data in the form of counts of travellers between regions, to extend the often-used SEIR models to include mobility between regions. We quantify the trade-off between mobility and infection spread in terms of a single parameter, to be chosen by policy makers, and propose strategies for restricting mobility so that the restrictions are minimal while the infection spread is effectively limited. We consider restrictions where the country is divided into regions, and study scenarios where mobility is allowed within these regions, and disallowed between them. We propose heuristic methods to approximate optimal choices for these regions. We evaluate the obtained restrictions based on our trade-off. The results show that our methods are especially effective when the infections are highly concentrated, e.g. around a few municipalities, as resulting from superspreading events that play an important role in the spread of COVID-19. We demonstrate our method in the example of the Netherlands. The results apply more broadly when mobility data are available.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
Feng, Zijian
DOI：
10.1016/j.trc.2018.02.015
发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Yildirimoglu, Mehmet;Kim, Jiwon
通讯作者：
Kim, Jiwon
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Della Rossa, Fabio;Pecora, Louis;Sorrentino, Francesco
通讯作者：
Sorrentino, Francesco
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2020.0875
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Parino F;Zino L;Porfiri M;Rizzo A
通讯作者：
Rizzo A
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0605965104
发表时间：
2007-01-02
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Fortunato, Santo;Barthelemy, Marc
通讯作者：
Barthelemy, Marc