Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality
Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-019-13957-x
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发表时间：
2020-01-13
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Moreno-Cruz, Juan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Harding, Anthony R.;Ricke, Katharine;Moreno-Cruz, Juan
探索太阳能地球工程经济影响的异质性是理解与地球工程选项相关的风险权衡的基本步骤。为了在同等条件下评估太阳能地球工程和温室气体驱动的气候变化的影响，我们应用了广泛应用于气候变化影响评估的宏观经济影响模型。结合历史证据与气候模拟的年平均温度和降水量，我们项目的社会经济后果下的高人为排放的程式化的气候情景中，全球温度稳定或过冷阻挡太阳辐射。我们发现，气候变化对全球人均GDP的影响，到世纪末是温度驱动的，高度分散，模型依赖。然而，在所有模型规格中，太阳能地球工程的国家之间的收入不平等程度较低。持续减少国家间不平等可以为太阳能地球工程影响分布的讨论提供信息，这是地球工程伦理和治理辩论中的一个关注话题。
Exploring heterogeneity in the economic impacts of solar geoengineering is a fundamental step towards understanding the risk tradeoff associated with a geoengineering option. To evaluate impacts of solar geoengineering and greenhouse gas-driven climate change on equal terms, we apply macroeconomic impact models that have been widely applied to climate change impacts assessment. Combining historical evidence with climate simulations of mean annual temperature and precipitation, we project socio-economic outcomes under high anthropogenic emissions for stylized climate scenarios in which global temperatures are stabilized or over-cooled by blocking solar radiation. We find impacts of climate changes on global GDP-per-capita by the end of the century are temperature-driven, highly dispersed, and model dependent. Across all model specifications, however, income inequality between countries is lower with solar geoengineering. Consistent reduction in inter-country inequality can inform discussions of the distribution of impacts of solar geoengineering, a topic of concern in geoengineering ethics and governance debates.