Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study
Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study
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DOI：
10.1002/hep.32272
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发表时间：
2022-01-24
期刊：
影响因子：
13.5
通讯作者：
Chhatwal, Jagpreet
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Julien, Jovan;Ayer, Turgay;Chhatwal, Jagpreet
背景和目的在2020年美国COVID-19大流行期间，酒精消费量有所增加。我们预测了饮酒增加对酒精相关性肝病（ALD）和死亡率的影响。方法和结果我们扩展了先前经过验证的微观模拟模型，该模型估计了1920年至2012年之间出生的美国人在COVID-19大流行期间饮酒增加的短期和长期影响。我们利用2020年2月至11月期间全国代表性样本中酒精消费变化的调查数据，对COVID-19（现状）期间当前饮酒模式的短期和长期结果进行了建模。我们将这些结果与没有发生COVID-19且饮酒模式没有改变的反事实情景进行了比较。据估计，在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，酒精消费量增加一年将导致8000例（95%不确定区间[UI]， 7500-8600）额外的ald相关死亡，18,700例（95%不确定区间[UI]， 17,600-19,900）失代偿性肝硬化病例和1000例（95% UI, 1000-1100） HCC病例，并在2020年至2040年期间减少890万残疾调整生命年。2020年至2023年期间，COVID-19导致的酒精消费变化将导致100（100-200）例额外死亡和2800（2700-2900）例额外失代偿性肝硬化病例。持续增加的酒精消费量超过1年可能导致额外的发病率和死亡率。结论：COVID-19大流行期间酒精消费量的短期增加可显著增加长期ald相关的发病率和死亡率。我们的研究结果强调，个人和政策制定者需要做出明智的决定，以减轻美国高风险饮酒的影响。
Background and Aims Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality. Approach and Results We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short- and long-term outcomes of current drinking patterns during COVID-19 (status quo) using survey data of changes in alcohol consumption in a nationally representative sample between February and November 2020. We compared these outcomes with a counterfactual scenario wherein no COVID-19 occurs and drinking patterns do not change. One-year increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to result in 8000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7500-8600) additional ALD-related deaths, 18,700 (95% UI, 17,600-19,900) cases of decompensated cirrhosis, and 1000 (95% UI, 1000-1100) cases of HCC, and 8.9 million disability-adjusted life years between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2023, alcohol consumption changes due to COVID-19 will lead to 100 (100-200) additional deaths and 2800 (2700-2900) additional decompensated cirrhosis cases. A sustained increase in alcohol consumption for more than 1 year could result in additional morbidity and mortality. Conclusions A short-term increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic can substantially increase long-term ALD-related morbidity and mortality. Our findings highlight the need for individuals and policymakers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of high-risk alcohol drinking in the United States.