Evolutionary game analysis of decision-making dynamics of local governments and residents during wildfires
Evolutionary game analysis of decision-making dynamics of local governments and residents during wildfires
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101991
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发表时间：
2021-02-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kong, Zhaojun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi, Wenqiang;Wang, Haizhong;Kong, Zhaojun
现有文献缺乏从动态的角度探讨利益相关者在野火期间决策的相互作用。基于达尔文进化论提出的进化博弈论能够捕捉动态过程，为分析复杂性提供了一种方法。本研究利用三方演化博弈模型，分析野火事件中不同决策者疏散决策的动态演化过程。决策者包括（1）负责警告、沟通和/或下达疏散命令的地方政府，（2）决定疏散的居民，以及（3）选择留下的居民。通过这种动态分析，本研究确定了不同的利益相关者和整个系统的进化稳定策略（ESS）。基于系统动力学的方法，通过算例验证了平衡点的稳定性，并分析了相关因素的影响。结果表明：（1）在所有的均衡点中，系统存在四个ESS，（2）在所有的情景下，地方政府都能更快地到达ESS点，（3）地方政府的决策受到上级政府的奖励和支持、管制成本和居民行为的影响;而（4）居民的行为会受到预期疏散成本、健康和财产损失、预期抢劫损失本研究的见解可以加深对突发事件中决策者之间关系的理解，为有效应对野火灾害提供指导管理战略。
The existing literature is short of exploring the interactions of stakeholders' decisions during wildfires from a dynamic perspective. Evolutionary game theory proposed based on Darwin's theory of evolution can capture the dynamic process and provide a method to analyze the complexity. This study utilizes a tripartite evolutionary game model to analyze the dynamic evolutionary process of evacuation decision-making for different decision makers in a wildfire event. The decision makers include (1) local governments who are responsible for warning, communicating with, and/or placing evacuation order, (2) residents who decide to evacuate, and (3) residents who chose to stay. Through this dynamic analysis, this study identifies evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) of different stakeholders and the whole system. A numerical example based on system dynamics (SD) is given to validate the stability of equilibrium points and analyze the influence of relative factors. The results show that (1) there are four ESS in the system among all the equilibrium points; (2) the local government would be quicker in reaching the ESS points in all scenarios; (3) local government's decision is influenced by reward and support from the higher level of government, regulation cost, and residents' behavior; whereas (4) the residents' behavior can be affected by the expected evacuation cost, loss of health and property, expected loss from looting, etc. The insights of this study could deepen understandings of the relationship between decision makers in emergency and provide guidance for effective wildfire disaster management strategies.