Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields
复制标题
农作物产量变化驱动的气候变化对宏观经济的影响
作者：
S. Fujimori;T. Iizumi;T. Hasegawa;Jun’ya Takakura;Kiyoshi Takahashi;Y. Hijioka
气候变化导致的农业产量变化将影响土地利用、农业生产量和粮食价格，以及GDP等宏观经济指标，这一点很重要，因为它使人能够比较气候变化对多个部门的影响。这项研究考虑了五个关键的不确定性因素，并使用一个新的综合评估框架估计了作物产量变化对宏观经济的影响。这五个因素是(1)土地利用变化(或基于空间显性信息的产量聚合方法)，(2)二氧化碳施肥效应的幅度，(3)不同气候模型的使用，(4)社会经济假设和(5)缓解的严格程度。我们发现，它们对2100年宏观经济指标值的全球影响为GDP的0.02-0.06%。然而，对农业部门的影响因社会经济假设而有很大不同。在人口规模大、低收入、低产量发展的悲观世界情景中，这些因素对宏观经济指标值预测总不确定性的相对贡献大于人口规模小、高收入、高产量发展的乐观情景(0.00%)。
Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which is important as it enables one to compare climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are (1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially explicit information), (2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, (3) the use of different climate models, (4) socioeconomic assumptions and (5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02–0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population size, low income, and low yield development than in an optimistic scenario characterized by a small population size, high income, and high yield development (0.00%).