Responding to Early Flood Warnings in the European Union
Responding to Early Flood Warnings in the European Union
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应对欧盟的早期洪水警报
DOI：
10.1057/9780230316911_9
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Sebastien Nobert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Demeritt;Sebastien Nobert
欧洲洪水警报系统（EPAS）于2008年7月20日首次发布了2008年夏季将影响罗马尼亚、摩尔多瓦和乌克兰的严重洪水警告。1由于夏季异常潮湿，土壤湿度已经很高，并且预计未来一周将有强降雨，这个实验性的，据欧洲预警系统预测，从7月25日起，罗马尼亚所有主要河流流域的河流流量很可能超过“严重”或最高EFAS警戒水平。在连续的预报模拟中，强烈的洪水信号持续存在，位于意大利伊斯普拉的欧盟委员会（EC）联合研究中心（JRC）负责EFAS运行前开发的科学团队有足够的信心向罗马尼亚国家水文和水管理研究所（INHGA）发出正式警报。INHGA是罗马尼亚负责洪水预报和预警的国家机构，2006年，它签署了一项正式的谅解备忘录，以便获得中期援助。（3-10天）EFAS警报，以补充天气预报、实时河流监测系统和短期（0-48小时），主要是统计，洪水预报模型，它用来提供洪水预报，以总督察紧急情况在内政部和国家水务局，Apele Romane，该机构负责向当地民防当局（CPA）和罗马尼亚广大公众发布流域范围的预报和警报。
The first warning of the severe flooding that would afflict Romania, Moldova and the Ukraine in the summer of 2008 was issued by the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) on 20 July 2008.1 With soil moisture levels already high from an unusually wet summer and heavy rainfall forecast for the week ahead, this experimental, pan-European early-warning system was predicting a significant probability of river flows exceeding the ‘severe’, or very highest, EFAS alert level on all the major river basins in Romania from 25 July onwards. Seeing a strong flooding signal persist over consecutive forecast simulations, the scientific team working on the pre-operational development of EFAS at the European Commission’s (EC) Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra, Italy felt confident enough to issue a formal alert to the Romanian National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (INHGA). INHGA is the national body with operational responsibility for flood forecasting and warning in Romania, and in 2006 it signed a formal Memorandum of Understanding so as to receive medium-term (3–10 days) EFAS alerts to complement the weather forecasts, real-time river monitoring systems and short-term (0-48 hours), largely statistical, flood-forecast models it uses to provide flood forecasts to the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations in the Interior Ministry and the national water authority, Apele Romane, who in turn is responsible for issuing catchment-scale forecasts and warnings to local civil protection authorities (CPAs) and the public at large in Romania.