Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains
Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains
复制标题
搬起石头砸自己的脚？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3526944
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Fontagné
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cecilia Bellora;L. Fontagné
尽管在2019年12月中旬达成了《第一阶段协议》，但美国和中国之间的双边关税仍处于前所未有的高水平，这将产生长期影响。美国对零部件和其他中间产品的关税仍然非常高；同样，中国上一波报复性关税只削减了一半。我们在本文中调查了高度相互依存的经济体之间的这种紧张关系将如何影响贸易、收入和就业。我们依赖于一种以一般均衡、不完全竞争和重要的按用途区分商品需求的结构，以供最终或中间消费。这授权追踪价值链上的保护对价格、附加值和要素收入的影响。来自官方清单的额外关税在关税细目一级考虑，然后在部门内汇总。除了制裁造成的直接损失外，由于价值链上的垂直联系导致竞争力下降，美国对世界的出口大幅下降。由于自2020年2月起实施的关税，四分之三的行业在美国减少了附加值。与政治经济决定因素一致，这些价值增加的曲折传递到生产要素，导致大量就业机会的创造和破坏，以及资本重新分配到受保护部门的利益，主要是以牺牲客户的利益为代价。最终，这篇论文揭示了扰乱全球价值链的政策的经济后果。
Despite the "Phase One Deal" agreed on mid-December 2019, bilateral tariffs between US and China remain at unprecedented high levels, which will have long-lasting effects. US tariffs remain very high on parts, components and other intermediate products; similarly, only the last wave of Chinese retaliatory tariffs has been half cut. We investigate in this paper how such tensions between highly interdependent economies will impact trade, income and jobs. We rely on a set-up featuring General Equilibrium, imperfect competition and importantly differentiating demand of goods according to their use, for final or intermediate consumption. This authorizes tracing the impact of protection along the value chains, on prices, value added and factor income. Additional tariffs from official lists are taken into account at the tariff line level, before being aggregated within sectors. Beyond the direct toll of sanctions, US exports to the world post a sizeable decrease as a result of reduced competitiveness led by vertical linkages along the value chains. Because of the tariffs in place as of February 2020, three quarters of the sectors decrease their value added in the US. Consistent with political economy determinants, these twists of value added are transmitted to production factors, leading to sizeable creation and destruction of jobs, and reallocation of capital to the benefit of protected sectors, mostly at the expense of their clients. Ultimately, this paper sheds light on the economic consequences of policies disrupting global value chains.