Why children start smoking cigarettes: predictors of onset.
Why children start smoking cigarettes: predictors of onset.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.1992.tb02684.x
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发表时间：
1992-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Conrad;B. Flay;D. Hill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Conrad;B. Flay;D. Hill
我们回顾了自1980年以来进行的27项关于吸烟发病的前瞻性研究的结果。研究了近300种吸烟发作预测因子的测量方法，其中74%为来自理论和以前的实证研究结果的发作预测因子提供了多变量支持。预期的关系得到了以下方面的有力支持：（a）社会经济地位，地位受损的学生更有可能尝试吸烟;（B）社会联系变量，特别是同伴和学校联系，对家庭联系的支持较少;（c）社会学习变量，特别是同伴吸烟和批准，患病率估计，以及提供/可用性，对父母吸烟和批准的支持较少;（d）拒绝技能自我效能;（e）知识、态度和意图，预期意图的预测比态度的预测强于知识的预测;（f）自尊的广泛指标。少数研究者按年龄、性别或种族分别分析了他们的数据，发现了这些因素的许多差异，尽管他们中的人太少，无法自信地发现任何模式。虽然这27项研究远非完美，但我们相信它们证实了许多公认的预测因素的重要性，并对其他人提出了一些问题。特别是，家庭吸烟，结合和批准每个都得到了意想不到的低支持。不清楚这种缺乏支持的情况是否反映了一直以来的现实，是由于现实不断变化，反映了受试者年龄或发病阶段的发展变化，还是由于测量不佳和测试太少。未来的前瞻性研究需要理论驱动，使用已知的可靠性和有效性的措施，报告分析的规模属性，并使用统计方法，适当的假设或理论研究。最后，我们鼓励对过渡到实验性或常规吸烟的潜在不同预测因素进行更多调查。这将需要多波研究和仔细测量吸烟行为的变化。
We review findings from 27 prospective studies of the onset of cigarette smoking conducted since 1980. Almost 300 measures of predictors of smoking onset were examined, and 74% of them provided multivariate support for predictors of onset derived from theory and previous empirical findings. Expected relationships were strongly supported for (a) socioeconomic status, with students with compromised status being more likely to try smoking; (b) social bonding variables, particularly peer and school bonding, with less support for family bonding; (c) social learning variables, especially peer smoking and approval, prevalence estimates, and offers/availability, with less consistent support for parent smoking and approval; (d) refusal skills self efficacy; (e) knowledge, attitudes and intentions, with the expected stronger predictions from intentions than from attitudes than from knowledge; and (f) broad indicators of self-esteem. The few investigators who analyzed their data separately by age, gender, or ethnicity found many differences by these factors, though there were too few of them to detect any pattern with confidence. Though the 27 studies are far from perfect, we believe that they confirm the importance of many well-accepted predictors and raise some questions about others. In particular, family smoking, bonding and approval each received unexpectedly low support. It is not clear whether this lack of support reflects reality as it has always been, is due to a changing reality, reflects developmental changes, either in the age of subjects or the stage of onset, or is due to poor measurement and too few tests. Future prospective studies need to be theory-driven, use measures of known reliability and validity, report analyses of scale properties, and use statistical methods appropriate to the hypotheses or theories under study. Finally, we encourage more investigations of the potentially different predictors of transitions to experimental or regular cigarette smoking. This will require multi-wave studies and careful measurement of changes in smoking behavior.