Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence
Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence
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DOI：
10.1086/654419
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发表时间：
1999-05
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
F. Rodríguez;D. Rodrik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Rodríguez;D. Rodrik
一旦控制了其他相关国家的特征，具有较低政策诱导国际贸易壁垒的国家增长更快吗？有大量的实证文献为这个问题提供了肯定的答案。我们认为，在这篇文献中使用的经验策略的方法论问题使得结果可以有不同的解释。在许多情况下，研究人员使用的开放指标是对贸易壁垒的糟糕衡量，或者与其他糟糕的经济表现来源高度相关。在其他情况下，用来确定贸易政策与增长之间联系的方法存在严重缺陷。我们评论的论文包括杜拉(1992)、本-大卫(1993)、萨克斯和华纳(1995)、爱德华兹(1998)以及弗兰克尔和罗默(1999)的论文。我们发现，几乎没有证据表明开放的贸易政策--从降低关税和非关税壁垒的意义上说--与经济增长显著相关。
Do countries with lower policy-induced barriers to international trade grow faster, once other relevant country characteristics are controlled for? There exists a large empirical literature providing an affirmative answer to this question. We argue that methodological problems with the empirical strategies employed in this literature leave the results open to diverse interpretations. In many cases, the indicators of openness used by researchers are poor measures of trade barriers or are highly correlated with other sources of bad economic performance. In other cases, the methods used to ascertain the link between trade policy and growth have serious shortcomings. Papers that we review include those by Dollar (1992), Ben-David (1993), Sachs and Warner (1995), Edwards (1998), and Frankel and Romer (1999). We find little evidence that open trade policies-in the sense of lower tariff and nontariff barriers to trade-are significantly associated with economic growth.