How the Monty Hall problem is similar to the false discovery rate in high-throughput data analysis.
How the Monty Hall problem is similar to the false discovery rate in high-throughput data analysis.
复制标题
Monty Hall 问题与高通量数据分析中的错误发现率有何相似之处。
DOI：
10.1038/s41587-023-01794-9
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
46.9
通讯作者：
Li,JingyiJessica
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li,JingyiJessica
让我们做个交易。游戏有三扇门，一扇门后有一辆汽车，另外两扇门后各有一只山羊。参赛者不知道汽车在哪个门后，因此随机选择一个门。这就是情况变得有趣的地方。主持人可以看到两扇未选择的门后面是什么，打开一扇后面有山羊的未选择的门，并问参赛者是否愿意用未打开的未选择的门交换他们已经选择的门。问题是：交换是否会增加参赛者获胜的机会？蒙蒂霍尔问题作为一个脑筋急转弯而出名。绝大多数人的第一个猜测是，切换不会增加获胜的机会，因为不可能确定两个未打开的门中的哪一个后面有车。然而，汽车可以在任何一个未打开的门后面的事实并不意味着两个未打开的门同样有可能隐藏汽车。原因何在？行动的顺序很重要。
Let’s Make a Deal. The game has three doors, with a car behind one door and a goat behind each of the other two doors. The contestant does not know which door the car is behind and thus randomly chooses a door. This is where the situation becomes interesting. The host, who can see what is behind the two unchosen doors, opens one unchosen door with a goat behind it and asks the contestant if they would like to switch their already chosen door with the unopened unchosen door. The question is: would switching increase the contestant’s chance of winning? The Monty Hall problem became famous as a brain teaser. An overwhelming majority of people’s first guess is that switching would not increase the chance of winning because it is impossible to be certain about which of the two unopened doors has the car behind it. However, the fact that the car can be behind either unopened door does not mean that the two unopened doors are equally likely to be hiding the car. What is the reason? The order of actions matters.