Evacuation behaviors in tsunami drills
Evacuation behaviors in tsunami drills
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-022-05208-y
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发表时间：
2022-02-02
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Cramer, Lori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Chen;Mostafizi, Alireza;Cramer, Lori
本文介绍了在卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带（CSZ）的沿海社区中使用海啸疏散演习，以更好地了解疏散行为，从而提高海啸疏散准备和恢复能力。通过嵌入在移动设备中的全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）收集疏散人员的空间轨迹数据。基于经验轨迹数据，采用概率函数对疏散演练中人们的行走速度进行建模。建立了疏散徒步函数（EHF）来描述速度-坡度关系，为疏散建模和规划提供依据。回归分析表明，疏散速度与坡度、疏散时间、崎岖地形、夜间行走和到达目的地的距离呈显著负相关。我们还基于参与者的经验疏散行为和最先进的CSZ海啸淹没模型证明了碾磨时间对死亡率的影响。演习后的调查显示了演习作为一种教育和评估工具的重要性。研究结果可用于公众教育、疏散方案评估和疏散模拟模型。演习程序、设计和数据收集技术的使用为海啸防备提供了证据驱动的解决方案，并激发了在野火、飓风、火山和洪水等其他类型自然灾害中使用演习的灵感。
This paper presents the use of tsunami evacuation drills within a coastal community in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) to better understand evacuation behaviors and thus to improve tsunami evacuation preparedness and resilience. Evacuees' spatial trajectory data were collected by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) embedded in mobile devices. Based on the empirical trajectory data, probability functions were employed to model people's walking speed during the evacuation drills. An Evacuation Hiking Function (EHF) was established to depict the speed-slope relationship and to inform evacuation modeling and planning. The regression analysis showed that evacuees' speed was significantly negatively associated with slope, time spent during evacuation, rough terrain surface, walking at night, and distance to destination. We also demonstrated the impacts of milling time on mortality rate based on participants' empirical evacuation behaviors and a state-of-the-art CSZ tsunami inundation model. Post-drill surveys revealed the importance of the drill as an educational and assessment tool. The results of this study can be used for public education, evacuation plan assessment, and evacuation simulation models. The drill procedures, designs, and the use of technology in data collection provide evidence-driven solutions to tsunami preparedness and inspire the use of drills in other types of natural disasters such as wildfires, hurricanes, volcanoes, and flooding.