Effects of climate change on pest-parasitoid dynamics: Development of a simulation model and first results
Effects of climate change on pest-parasitoid dynamics: Development of a simulation model and first results
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DOI：
10.1007/bf03356527
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Meyhoefer, Rainer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gebauer, Konstanze;Hemerik, Lia;Meyhoefer, Rainer
预测的气候变化对农业害虫和有益昆虫物种的影响对种植者来说非常重要，因为气温上升可能直接影响昆虫种群的发育速度。这些参数是物种特有的，并导致对气候变化的不同反应，潜在地扰乱了害虫-寄生蜂动态的同步性。本文研究了气候变化引起的气温升高对十字花科作物上普遍存在的粉状甘蓝蚜虫和菜粉虱内寄生蜂种群动态的影响。在下萨克森州的三个蔬菜种植区，利用模拟温度数据的年龄结构模拟模型，模拟了两种蔬菜在(1)近期(19912000-2050年)、(2)远期(2090-2099年)和(3)参考时间段(2090-2099年)的种群发展。菜青虫在春季首次出现的时间早于菜青虫，但没有破坏两个种群之间的同步性。尽管菜青虫的发生较早，种群数量在未来时期有所增加，但菜青虫的最大种群数量也有所增加。此外，该模式导致该季节有翅蚜虫较早发生，表明可能需要适应虫害管理。
The influence of predicted climatic change on agricultural pest and beneficial insect species is of high importance for growers since increasing temperatures may have a direct impact on the developmental rates of insect populations. These parameters are species-specific and result in variable reactions to climate change, potentially disrupting the synchrony of pest-parasitoid dynamics. This study investigated the effect of increasing temperatures caused by climate change on the population dynamics of the mealy cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae, a worldwide occurring pest species in cruciferous crops, and the endoparasitoid Diaeretiella rapae. For three vegetable growing regions in lower Saxony, the population development of both species was simulated for (1) the near future (2041-2050), (2) the far future (2090-2099) and (3) the reference time period (19912000), using an age structured simulation model including simulated temperature data. An earlier first occurrence of D. rapae in spring compared to B. brassicae was shown, however with no disruption of the synchrony between the two populations. Despite the earlier occurrence and increased population size of D. rapae in future periods, B. brassicae maximum population size also increased. Furthermore, an earlier occurrence of alate aphids during the season resulted from the model, indicating a potential need to adapt pest management.