Diagnosing the Conditional Probability of Tornado Damage Rating Using Environmental and Radar Attributes
Diagnosing the Conditional Probability of Tornado Damage Rating Using Environmental and Radar Attributes
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使用环境和雷达属性诊断龙卷风损害等级的条件概率
DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-14-00122.1
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Patrick Marsh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bryan T. Smith;R. Thompson;R. Dean;Patrick Marsh
雷达识别的对流模式，峰值低层旋转速度和近风暴环境数据被分配给2009 - 13年在美国邻近地区发现的龙卷风样本。采用40 km水平网格，通过每小时最大增强Fujita（EF）尺度龙卷风事件过滤龙卷风分段数据。对流模式被分配到每个龙卷风事件通过检查完整的体积天气监视雷达-1988多普勒数据在每个事件的开始时间，和0.58峰值旋转速度（Vrot）的数据被手动确定在每个龙卷风事件的生命周期。环境信息伴随着每个网格小时的事件，主要由超级单体相关的对流参数从每小时的客观中尺度分析计算和存档在风暴预报中心。从examiningenvironmental和雷达属性，具有显着的龙卷风参数（STP）和0.58峰值Vrot数据，结果表明，随着STP和0.58峰值Vrot的增加，特别是与超级单体更大的EF-规模的损害的条件概率增加。这些发现的可能应用包括使用龙卷风强度的条件概率作为实时态势感知工具。
Radar-identified convective modes, peak low-level rotational velocities, and near-storm environmental data were assignedtoa sampleoftornadoesreportedinthe contiguous UnitedStatesduring 2009‐13. Thetornadosegmentdata were filtered by the maximum enhanced Fujita (EF)-scale tornado event per hour using a 40-km horizontal grid. Convective mode was assigned to each tornado event by examining full volumetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler data at the beginning time of each event, and 0.58 peak rotational velocity (Vrot) data were identified manually during the life span of each tornado event. Environmental information accompanied each grid-hour event, consistingprimarily of supercell-related convectiveparameters fromthe hourly objective mesoscale analysescalculated and archived at the Storm Prediction Center. Results from examiningenvironmental and radar attributes, featuring the significant tornado parameter (STP) and 0.58 peak Vrot data, suggest an increasing conditional probability for greater EF-scale damage as both STP and 0.58 peak Vrot increase, especially with supercells. Possible applications of these findings include using the conditional probability of tornado intensity as a real-time situational awareness tool.