Flood-risk Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future: Living with Rhine River Floods in The Netherlands?
Flood-risk Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future: Living with Rhine River Floods in The Netherlands?
复制标题
应对不确定未来的洪水风险管理策略：荷兰莱茵河洪水的考验？
作者：
F. Klijn;Michaël van Buuren;Sabine A. M. van Rooij
从经济角度和自然保护角度来看，冲积平原和三角洲的社会压力都很大。随着经济的发展，洪水风险逐渐增加，因为预期的损失增加，随着堤坝的升高，洪水深度增加。全球变化、不断变化的社会愿望以及不断变化的观点，要求对洪水风险管理战略进行长期修订。这些措施应该以恢复力为基础，而不是加高堤坝的抵抗战略。洪水风险管理的复原力战略意味着允许河流暂时淹没大片地区，而通过调整土地使用将洪水破坏降至最低。因此，这些战略的基础是风险管理和“与洪水共存”，而不是灾害控制。荷兰是世界上人口最稠密的三角洲之一，已经制定了替代性复原力战略，并对其水力功能和“可持续性标准”进行了评估。
Abstract Social pressure on alluvial plains and deltas is large, both from an economic point of view and from a nature conservation point of view. Gradually, flood risks increase with economic development, because the expected damage increases, and with higher dikes, because the flooding depth increases. Global change, changing social desires, but also changing views, require a revision of flood-risk management strategies for the long term. These should be based on resilience as opposed to the resistence strategy of heightening dikes. Resilience strategies for flood-risk management imply that the river is allowed to temporarily flood large areas, whereas the flood damage is minimized by adapting land use. Such strategies are thus based on risk management and ‘living with floods’ instead of on hazard control. For The Netherlands, one of the most densely populated deltas in the world, alternative resilience strategies have been elaborated and assessed for their hydraulic functioning and ‘sustainability criteria’.