Do not forget the children: a model-based analysis on the potential impact of COVID-19-associated interruptions in paediatric HIV prevention and care.
Do not forget the children: a model-based analysis on the potential impact of COVID-19-associated interruptions in paediatric HIV prevention and care.
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DOI：
10.1002/jia2.25864
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发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Ciaranello AL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Flanagan CF;McCann N;Stover J;Freedberg KA;Ciaranello AL
COVID-19大流行影响了全球的妇女和儿童，扰乱了抗逆转录病毒治疗（ART）服务，并加剧了孕妇和儿科人群护理的现有障碍。我们使用Spectrum建模包和CEPAC‐Pediatric模型来预测COVID-19相关护理中断对撒哈拉以南非洲21个全球计划优先国家的三个关键人群的影响：（1）感染艾滋病毒的孕妇和哺乳期妇女及其子女，（2）所有儿童（3）在大流行开始前从事护理和抗逆转录病毒治疗的艾滋病毒感染者（0-14岁）。我们预测了2020年3月1日至2021年3月1日12个月期间的临床结果。与没有护理中断的情况相比，在服务完全中断的3个月封锁中，随后又有3个月的部分（50%）服务中断，预计将有755，400名妇女接受预防母婴传播护理（减少21%），187，800名新的儿科艾滋病毒感染者（增加77%），516，800名儿童将接受抗逆转录病毒治疗（减少35%）。对于截至2020年3月接受抗逆转录病毒治疗的儿童，我们预计将有507，200人经历抗逆转录病毒治疗失败（增加80%）。此外，预计2020年3月至2021年3月期间将发生88，400例艾滋病相关死亡（增加27%），其中51，700例死亡发生在截至2020年3月的儿童护理中（增加54%）。虽然将继续努力遏制COVID-19本身直接导致的发病率和死亡率，但至关重要的是，提供者也要考虑这种流行病的直接和间接危害，特别是在弱势群体中。如果全球社会要保持实现无艾滋病一代的势头，那么及时采取知情的行动对于满足孕妇和儿童的健康需求至关重要。
The COVID‐19 pandemic has affected women and children globally, disrupting antiretroviral therapy (ART) services and exacerbating pre‐existing barriers to care for both pregnant women and paediatric populations. We used the Spectrum modelling package and the CEPAC‐Pediatric model to project the impact of COVID‐19‐associated care disruptions on three key populations in the 21 Global Plan priority countries in sub‐Saharan Africa: (1) pregnant and breastfeeding women living with HIV and their children, (2) all children (aged 0–14 years) living with HIV (CLWH), regardless of their engagement in care and (3) CLWH who were engaged in care and on ART prior to the start of the pandemic. We projected clinical outcomes over the 12‐month period of 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021. Compared to a scenario with no care disruption, in a 3‐month lockdown with complete service disruption, followed by 3 additional months of partial (50%) service disruption, a projected 755,400 women would have received PMTCT care (a 21% decrease), 187,800 new paediatric HIV infections would have occurred (a 77% increase) and 516,800 children would have received ART (a 35% decrease). For children on ART as of March 2020, we projected 507,200 would have experienced ART failure (an 80% increase). Additionally, a projected 88,400 AIDS‐related deaths would have occurred (a 27% increase) between March 2020 and March 2021, with 51,700 of those deaths occurring among children engaged in care as of March 2020 (a 54% increase). While efforts will continue to curb morbidity and mortality stemming directly from COVID‐19 itself, it is critical that providers also consider the immediate and indirect harms of this pandemic, particularly among vulnerable populations. Well‐informed, timely action is critical to meet the health needs of pregnant women and children if the global community is to maintain momentum towards an AIDS‐free generation.
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影响因子：
6
作者：
Fatti G;Ngorima-Mabhena N;Tiam A;Tukei BB;Kasu T;Muzenda T;Maile K;Lombard C;Chasela C;Grimwood A
通讯作者：
Grimwood A
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Briggs, Andrew H.;Weinstein, Milton C.;Paltiel, A. David
通讯作者：
Paltiel, A. David
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Palumbo, Paul;Lindsey, Jane C.;Violari, Avy
通讯作者：
Violari, Avy
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.20-1045
发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
影响因子：
--
作者：
Adebisi YA;Alaran AJ;Akinokun RT;Micheal AI;Ilesanmi EB;Lucero-Prisno DE
通讯作者：
Lucero-Prisno DE
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Scott, Susana;Kendall, Lindsay;Jasseh, Momodou
通讯作者：
Jasseh, Momodou