Age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer
Age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.1428
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发表时间：
2003-06-15
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Feuer, EJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fay, MP;Pfeiffer, R;Feuer, EJ
我们提出了一个在给定的年龄范围内发生疾病的概率的估计值，条件是在该年龄范围开始之前从未患过这种疾病。我们的估计器改进了Wun，Merrill和Feuer(Lifetime Data Analyses 1998；4,169-186)所描述的估计器，该估计器目前由美国国家癌症研究所为SEER癌症统计评论使用。两个估计者都使用横截面发病率，并根据假设队列中发病的年龄条件概率对这些发病率进行解释。这一问题的困难在于，无法获得活着和无病年份的人均费率，而只能获得人均活着年份的费率。Wun等人。使用特别方法来处理这一问题，这种方法没有适当考虑竞争风险，没有提供变异性的衡量标准，只允许使用预先指定的5岁年龄间隔。在这里，我们在一个统一的竞争风险框架下解决这个问题，该框架允许计算任何年龄范围的年龄条件概率。我们推广了伽马可信区间以应用于我们的新统计量。虽然我们的新方法提供的估计在数值上与Wun等人的估计相似，但本文为估计和推断发生疾病的年龄条件概率提供了全面的理论基础。2003年由John Wiley Sons，Ltd.出版。
We propose an estimator of the probability of developing a disease in a given age range, conditional on never having developed the disease prior to the beginning of the age range. Our estimator improves the one described by Wun, Merrill and Feuer (Lifetime Data Analysis 1998; 4, 169-186) that is currently used by the U.S. National Cancer Institute for the SEER Cancer Statistics Review. Both estimators use cross-sectional disease rates and provide an interpretation of these rates in terms of the age-conditional probability of developing disease in a hypothetical cohort. The difficulty of this problem is that rates are not available per person-years alive and disease free, but only per person-years alive. Wun et al. used ad hoc methods to handle this problem which did not properly account for competing risks, did not provide a measure of variability, and only allowed age ranges using prespecified 5-year age intervals. Here we solve the problem under a unified competing risks framework, which allows the calculation of the age-conditional probabilities for any age range. We generalize gamma confidence intervals to apply to our new statistic. Although our new method provides estimates which are numerically similar to that of Wun et al., this paper provides a comprehensive theoretical basis for estimation and inference about the age-conditional probability of developing a disease. Published in 2003 by John Wiley Sons, Ltd.