Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030.
Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12960-017-0187-2
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发表时间：
2017-02-03
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Scheffler R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu JX;Goryakin Y;Maeda A;Bruckner T;Scheffler R
在低收入和中等收入国家，由于缺乏提供服务的熟练保健专业人员，扩大基本保健干预措施以实现保健发展目标的工作受到限制。我们采用劳动力市场方法，根据基于预期经济增长、人口统计和健康覆盖率的经济模型，并使用世卫组织全球卫生观察站165个国家的卫生人力数据（1990-2013年），预测未来卫生人力需求。将需求预测与卫生组织为实现基本保健覆盖而估计的保健工作者供应和保健工作者“需求”的预测增长进行了比较。该模型预测，到2030年，全球对卫生工作者的需求将增加到8 000万人，是目前（2013年）卫生工作者存量的两倍，而同期卫生工作者的供应预计将达到6 500万人，导致全世界净短缺1 500万卫生工作者。在经济和人口增长以及老龄化的推动下，中上收入国家对卫生工作者的需求增长将最快。这导致预计最大的短缺，可能加剧对熟练卫生工作者的全球竞争。中等收入国家将面临劳动力短缺，因为它们的需求将超过供给。相比之下，低收入国家将面临供需增长缓慢的问题，据估计，这将远远低于实现基本保健服务充分覆盖所需的水平。在许多低收入国家，需求可能低于预期供应，导致这些国家出现保健工作人员失业（“过剩”）的矛盾现象，面临“基于需求”的严重短缺。有机会弯曲现有卫生工作者数量和类型的轨迹，以实现公共卫生目标和对卫生工作者日益增长的需求。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/s12960-017-0187-2）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services. We take a labor market approach to project future health workforce demand based on an economic model based on projected economic growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using health workforce data (1990–2013) for 165 countries from the WHO Global Health Observatory. The demand projections are compared with the projected growth in health worker supply and the health worker “needs” as estimated by WHO to achieve essential health coverage. The model predicts that, by 2030, global demand for health workers will rise to 80 million workers, double the current (2013) stock of health workers, while the supply of health workers is expected to reach 65 million over the same period, resulting in a worldwide net shortage of 15 million health workers. Growth in the demand for health workers will be highest among upper middle-income countries, driven by economic and population growth and aging. This results in the largest predicted shortages which may fuel global competition for skilled health workers. Middle-income countries will face workforce shortages because their demand will exceed supply. By contrast, low-income countries will face low growth in both demand and supply, which are estimated to be far below what will be needed to achieve adequate coverage of essential health services. In many low-income countries, demand may stay below projected supply, leading to the paradoxical phenomenon of unemployed (“surplus”) health workers in those countries facing acute “needs-based” shortages. Opportunities exist to bend the trajectory of the number and types of health workers that are available to meet public health goals and the growing demand for health workers. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12960-017-0187-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.