How adherence to public health measures shapes epidemic spreading: A temporal network model
How adherence to public health measures shapes epidemic spreading: A temporal network model
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DOI：
10.1063/5.0041993
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发表时间：
2021-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Porfiri, Maurizio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Behring, Brandon M.;Rizzo, Alessandro;Porfiri, Maurizio
COVID-19大流行暴露了非药物干预措施在遏制空气传播传染病方面的重要性。一些观察性研究发现，社交距离和戴口罩可以遏制COVID-19的传播，但对它们的综合效果缺乏准确的了解。一个尚未发展的研究领域需要量化每一项措施在被民众区别采用时的具体作用。进行这项研究可以回答几个紧迫的问题，如：有多少人应该遵循公共卫生措施，他们对每个人都有效？仅仅保持社交距离或者仅仅戴上口罩就足够了吗？在这里，我们在这个方向上迈出了第一步，通过建立一个时间网络上的传染病模型，根据活动驱动的范式演变。通过分析和数值计算，我们研究了流行病传播与采取公共卫生措施的人口比例、社会距离的程度以及口罩在保护佩戴者和他人方面的功效的关系。我们的模型表明，如果社交距离和戴口罩能有效预防COVID-19疫情，那么这两项措施都涉及到相当大一部分人口。
The COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the containment of airborne infectious diseases. Social distancing and mask-wearing have been found to contain COVID-19 spreading across a number of observational studies, but a precise understanding of their combined effectiveness is lacking. An underdeveloped area of research entails the quantification of the specific role of each of these measures when they are differentially adopted by the population. Pursuing this research allows for answering several pressing questions like: how many people should follow public health measures for them to be effective for everybody? Is it sufficient to practice social distancing only or just wear a mask? Here, we make a first step in this direction, by establishing a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed epidemic model on a temporal network, evolving according to the activity-driven paradigm. Through analytical and numerical efforts, we study epidemic spreading as a function of the proportion of the population following public health measures, the extent of social distancing, and the efficacy of masks in protecting the wearer and others. Our model demonstrates that social distancing and mask-wearing can be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks if adherence to both measures involves a substantial fraction of the population.