The Polish parliamentary election of 2015: a free and fair election that results in unfair political consequences
The Polish parliamentary election of 2015: a free and fair election that results in unfair political consequences
复制标题
2015年波兰议会选举：自由公正的选举导致不公平的政治后果
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Markowski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Markowski
波兰2015年议会选举的结果是法律与公正党（PiS）获胜在民主波兰的历史上，胜利者第一次能够在不与联盟伙伴谈判的情况下组建政府。这主要不是由于选民偏好的重大转变，而是由于政党（5%）和政党联盟（8%）的门槛造成了大量浪费选票（超过活跃选民的16%）。结果，Gallagher的不均衡指数飙升至11%（见表2）。在之前的七次议会选举中，有三次，获胜的政党吸引了比2015年PiS更高的活跃选民比例（37.6%），但无法组建一党政府（Markowski Cześnik and Kotnarowski 2015: 19-23）。2011-2015年公民纲领党（Civic Platform， PO）政府的高级联盟伙伴失去了大量选票，但如果新成立的政党Nowoczesna （Modern）被认为是早期（即2001年）公民纲领党提出的自由政策纲领的直接继承人，那么中自由派阵营总共获得了32%的选票。还应该记住的是，2015年的PiS政党名单中还包括另外两个政党的候选人，波兰人民党（Polska Razem）和波兰团结党（Solidarna Polska），实际上是一个三党联盟。另外两个现象值得一提：新议会中左翼政党的缺席，波兰农民党（PSL）的糟糕结果，这是自1989年以来唯一一个在同一名称和领导下幸存下来的波兰政党。在农村，农民和农民中，农业PSL的糟糕结果无疑对PiS的强劲表现做出了重大贡献。
The Polish 2015 parliamentary election resulted in victory for a single party, Law and Justice (PiS).1 For the first time in the history of democratic Poland, the victor was able to create a government without having to negotiate with coalition partners. This was due not so much to significant switches in the preferences of voters, but rather the result of a very high number of wasted votes (more than 16% of active voters) due to thresholds for parties (5%) and party coalitions (8%). As a consequence, Gallagher’s disproportionality index surged to 11% (see Table 2). In three of the seven previous parliamentary elections, the victorious party attracted a higher percentage of active voters than that achieved by PiS in 2015 (37.6%), but was unable to form a single-party government (Markowski Cześnik and Kotnarowski 2015: 19–23). The senior coalition partner in the 2011–2015 Civic Platform (PO) government lost a significant share of the vote, but if the newly established party Nowoczesna (Modern) is considered to be a direct heir of the liberal policy platform proposed by the early (i.e. 2001) PO, then the centre-liberal camp together obtained 32% of the vote. It should be borne in mind as well that the 2015 PiS party list also contained candidates from two other parties, Polska Razem (PR) and Solidarna Polska (SP), and was in point of fact a three-party coalition. Two additional phenomena are worth mentioning: the absence of parties of the left in the new parliament, and the poor result of the Polish Peasant Party (PSL), the only Polish political party that has survived under the same name and leadership since 1989. The poor result of the agrarian PSL in the countryside, among peasants and farmers has undoubtedly made a significant contribution to PiS’s strong showing.