Nonviolent Democratization: A Sensitivity Analysis of How Transition Mode and Violence Impact the Durability of Democracy
Nonviolent Democratization: A Sensitivity Analysis of How Transition Mode and Violence Impact the Durability of Democracy
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非暴力民主化：转型模式和暴力如何影响民主持久性的敏感性分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Johnstad
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Johnstad
本文测试并扩展了阿德里安Karatnycky和彼得阿克曼在2005年自由之家出版的研究如何自由是Won.1的敏感性分析将被给予评估他们的发现，非暴力的公民行动提高民主的持久性的有效性。分析表明，这种相关性具有统计学意义，而且随着Polity IV和经济学家情报股政权指数取代自由之家的原始数据，这种相关性仍然很重要。它还发现，公民过渡到民主的结果显着更强大的转型后的经济增长比由掌权者驱动的转型。此外，人们发现，反对派团体在过渡期间使用暴力会大大增加过渡后暴力冲突的可能性。
This article tests and expands upon the research performed by Adrian Karatnycky and Peter Ackerman in their 2005 Freedom House publication How Freedom Is Won.1 A sensitivity analysis will be given to assess the validity of their finding that nonviolent civic action improves the durability of democracy. The analysis shows that this correlation has statistical significance and remains significant with Polity IV and the Economist Intelligence Unit regime indices replacing the original Freedom House data. It also finds that civic transitions to democracy result in significantly stronger posttransition economic growth than do transitions driven by powerholders. Furthermore, the use of violence by opposition groups during the transition is found to increase dramatically the chances of posttransition violent conflict.