Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea
Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea
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DOI：
10.1111/brv.12221
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
10
通讯作者：
Murray, Ciaran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andersen, Jesper H.;Carstensen, Jacob;Murray, Ciaran
波罗的海大部分海域目前被列为“受富营养化影响”。造成这种情况的原因是双重的。首先，由于波罗的海在过去50-100年中积累了大量营养物质，目前来自人类活动的养分输入（氮和磷）水平超过了自然处理能力。其次，波罗的海自然容易受到营养物质富集的影响，这是由于长时间滞留和分层限制了深水的通风。本文基于从研究活动和长期监测项目中整理的独特数据集，利用HELCOM富营养化评估工具（HEAT 3.0）报告了112年来开放波罗的海富营养化状况的时空趋势。此外，我们分析了富营养化状态评估的置信度的变化基于系统的定量方法，利用变异系数的观测。我们的评估分类表明，富营养化的第一个迹象出现在20世纪50年代中期，波罗的海中部从未受富营养化影响到受到影响。我们记录了富营养化状况的改善，这是长期努力减少营养物质投入的直接后果。氮和磷负荷的减少导致富营养化的大规模缓解，使波罗的海更加健康。最近由于监测项目范围的缩小，我们对评估的信心有所下降。我们的研究为目前基于生态系统的管理战略和政策的实施设定了基线，包括欧盟海洋战略框架指令和HELCOM波罗的海行动计划。
Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.