Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States
Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States
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DOI：
10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.011
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发表时间：
2021-07-21
期刊：
影响因子：
39.8
通讯作者：
Baldwin, Samuel F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cole, Wesley J.;Greer, Danny;Baldwin, Samuel F.
我们模拟的途径，以实现100%的可再生能源（RE）电力系统的连续美国。在基础条件下，最低成本的建设使稀土渗透率在2050年增长到57%。相对于这一基本情景，实现80%、90%、95%和100%可再生能源的平均二氧化碳减排成本分别为25美元/吨、33美元/吨、40美元/吨和61美元/吨，95%时的系统成本从30美元/兆瓦时增加到36美元/兆瓦时（2040年实现），100%时的系统成本从39美元/兆瓦时增加到39美元/兆瓦时。从99%到100%可再生能源的增量减排成本达到930美元/吨，这主要是由于对公司可再生能源能力的需求。除了基本条件外，我们还研究了22种替代条件，以实现高达100%的扩建。这些敏感度反映了不同的技术轨迹、合规要求、需求时间、电气化和传输可用性。非线性边际成本接近100%RE的最后几个百分点，发现所有的敏感性，这可能会激励替代非电力部门减排的机会。
We simulate pathways for achieving up to 100% renewable energy (RE) electric power systems for the contiguous United States. Under base conditions, the least-cost buildout has RE penetration growing up to 57% in 2050. Relative to this base scenario, average CO2 abatement costs of achieving 80%, 90%, 95%, and 100% RE are $25, $33, $40, and $61/ton, respectively, with system costs growing from $30 to $36/MWh at 95% (achieved in 2040) and $39/MWh at 100%. Incremental abatement costs from 99% to 100% RE reach $930/ton, driven primarily by the need for firm RE capacity. In addition to the base conditions, we also examined 22 alternative conditions for a buildout of up to 100%. These sensitivities capture different technology trajectories, compliance requirements, requirement timing, electrification, and transmission availability. Nonlinear marginal costs for the last few percent approaching 100% RE were found for all sensitivities, which might motivate alternative nonelectric-sector abatement opportunities.