Bayesian forecasts for dark matter substructure searches with mock pulsar timing data
Bayesian forecasts for dark matter substructure searches with mock pulsar timing data
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DOI：
10.1088/1475-7516/2021/08/025
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发表时间：
2021-04
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Vincent S. H. Lee;S. Taylor;T. Trickle;K. Zurek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Vincent S. H. Lee;S. Taylor;T. Trickle;K. Zurek
暗物质亚结构，如原始黑洞(PBH)和轴子微星团，由于引力效应，会在脉冲星定时阵列(PTA)测量中引起相移。为了更真实地预测这种暗物质模型对PTA的探测能力，我们提出了一个贝叶斯推理框架来搜索PBH产生的相移，并对模拟的PTA数据进行了分析。对于大多数PBH质量，对暗物质丰度的限制与以前(没有模拟数据)对𝒪(1)因子的分析是一致的。这进一步激发了对质量范围从10-8M☉到远高于102M☉的PBH(和密集的小规模结构)的专门搜索，并使用平方千米阵列。此外，随着一组更乐观的定时参数的出现，预计未来的PTA将把PBH限制在10-11M☉。最后，我们讨论了背景的影响，如超大质量黑洞合并，对探测前景的影响，建议了一个未来的计划，将暗物质信号与其他天体物理来源分开。
Dark matter substructure, such as primordial black holes (PBHs) and axion miniclusters, can induce phase shifts in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) measurements due to gravitational effects. In order to gain a more realistic forecast for the detectability of such models of dark matter with PTAs, we propose a Bayesian inference framework to search for phase shifts generated by PBHs and perform the analysis on mock PTA data. For most PBH masses the constraints on the dark matter abundance agree with previous (frequentist) analyses (without mock data) to 𝒪(1) factors. This further motivates a dedicated search for PBHs (and dense small scale structures) in the mass range from 10-8 M ☉ to well above 102 M ☉ with the Square Kilometer Array. Moreover, with a more optimistic set of timing parameters, future PTAs are predicted to constrain PBHs down to 10-11 M ☉. Lastly, we discuss the impact of backgrounds, such as Supermassive Black Hole Mergers, on detection prospects, suggesting a future program to separate a dark matter signal from other astrophysical sources.