Is there a Moore's law for bandwidth
Is there a Moore's law for bandwidth
复制标题
DOI：
10.1109/35.795601
复制
发表时间：
1999-10-01
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Eisenach, JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eldering, CA;Sylla, ML;Eisenach, JA
摩尔定律预测集成电路上的晶体管数量每 18-24 个月就会增加一倍，该定律在半导体器件生产的三十年中一直得到很好的应用。使用历史数据，对调制解调器速度进行了类似的预测，特别是通过双绞线传输数据的速度，发现调制解调器数据速率历史上每 1.9 年翻一番。这一结果表明，未来几十年向用户提供的带宽的快速增加将产生深远的社会和经济影响，就像集成电路和微处理器的发展一样。然而，电信的监管方面可能会限制带宽的增长以及通过现有双绞线提供服务的高速调制解调器的部署。一般来说，从数据传输的角度来看，电缆环境监管较少，但可能允许部署支持超出摩尔定律类比预测速率的调制解调器。在本文中，我们研究了应用于现代技术的摩尔定律，以及监管如何影响宽带服务的部署。
Moore's Law, which predicts that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 18-24 months, has held remarkably well over three decades of semiconductor device production. Using historical data, a similar prediction is made for modem speeds, and in particular for the speed at which data can be transmitted over twisted wire pairs, where it is found that modem data rates have historically doubled every 1.9 years. This result suggests that rapid increases in bandwidth delivered to subscribers over the coming decades will have profound societal and economic effects, just as the development of the integrated circuit and the microprocessor have had. Nevertheless, the regulated aspect of telecommunications may limit the growth of bandwidth and the deployment of high-speed modems which deliver services over existing twisted wire pairs. The cable environment, which from a data transmission perspective is, generally speaking, less regulated, may allow for deployment of modems which support rates in excess of what is predicted by our Moore's Law analogy. In this article we examine Moore's Law as applied to modem technology, and how regulation may affect the deployment of broadband services.