Human population growth and the extinction of the tsetse fly
Human population growth and the extinction of the tsetse fly
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-8809(99)00103-6
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发表时间：
2000-02-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Leak, SGA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reid, RS;Kruska, RL;Leak, SGA
农业扩张是全球生物多样性丧失的主要原因，在非洲，生物学家观察到，随着人口增长和农民为了耕种而清理苍蝇栖息地，一些传播人类和牲畜锥虫病的采采蝇种群数量减少或消失。本文的目的是综合有关人类和采采蝇种群的现有信息，并开发一个模型来估计人类种群对采采蝇种群的未来影响。开发了一个空间 GIS 模型，结合 1960 年、1980 年、2000 年、2020 年和 2040 年的高分辨率人口数据来估计未来的影响；关于人类和采采蝇种群密度之间关系的实地数据；以及不同类型采采蝇的分布。到 2040 年，23 种采采蝇中的许多种将开始消失，受苍蝇侵扰的土地面积和接触苍蝇的人数也将减少。然而，在短期内，没有一种苍蝇会受到人类农业活动的灭绝威胁。在可预见的未来，比欧洲还要大的非洲地区仍将受到采采蝇的侵扰，并受到锥虫病的威胁。 (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. 保留所有权利。
Agricultural expansion is a major cause of biodiversity loss worldwide, in Africa, biologists have observed that the populations of some tsetse species, which transmit human and livestock trypanosomosis, decline or disappear as human populations grow and farmers clear fly habitat for cultivation. The objectives of this paper are to synthesize the available information concerning human and tsetse populations and to develop a model to estimate the future effect of human populations on tsetse populations. A spatial, GIS model was developed to estimate future impacts using a combination of fine-resolution human population data for the years 1960, 1980, 2000, 2020, and 2040; field data on the relationships between human and tsetse population densities; and the distribution of different types of tsetse fly. By 2040, many of the 23 species of tsetse By will begin to disappear and the area of land infested and number of people in contact with flies will also decline. However, none of the species of flies will be under threat of extinction by human agricultural activities in the near term. An area of Africa larger than Europe will remain infested by tsetse and under threat of trypanosomosis for the foreseeable future. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.